So . . .
Wins come in all kinds of different forms, as therefore do losses, and if I were blogging the Astros season I don’t know that I’d have the will to write this one up.
Though, really, as new as the story line might have been Monday night, it was true to the formula, and I’m not sure I’d even have the strength to watch games against Texas if Houston were my team.
(Speaking of which, I know that when Nolan Ryan was with Rangers management, he insisted on attendance numbers reflecting actual bodies in seats rather than tickets sold. There’s just no way that’s the measure in Houston, which announced 22,147 on hand for last night’s game, which would be more than 52 percent capacity. As sparse as the crowd looked for this game against the Astros’ chief rival with the club hanging desperately onto playoff hopes, if this were “Price Is Right,” that first digit is the one I’d submit was false.)
There’s a lot I could comment about as far as Texas 4, Houston 3 (12) is concerned, but I could just as easily start and finish this report the way Heidi Watney opened the Texas-Houston highlights package overnight on MLB Network’s “Quick Pitch”:
“So . . . yeah.”
Probably today’s entry if I were writing with Astros-tint glasses on.
The game started with Carlos Gomez showered (don’t let that term exaggerate the numbers on hand) with boos, just as he was the last time he’d been in that ballpark, then wearing the home white-and-orange.
And, because of course, after watching Doug Fister’s first pitch for a strike, Gomez worked a walk.
Gomez’s final 25 Houston plate appearances were all at-bats. Not a single base on balls.
Included in that stretch were four hitless trips to the plate on August 5 against Texas: a groundout, foul popout, and strikeout facing Martin Perez, and a flyout to right off of Tony Barnette. Gomez only pinch-ran in the remainder of that three-game series.
Meanwhile, Gomez has started all but one game in his three weeks with Texas. His walk rate (14.5 percent of his plate appearances) is more than double what it was this year with Houston (6.5 percent). He has cut his strikeout-to-walk rate in half (4.76 vs. 2.40). In a little more than a fifth of the plate appearances, he has four home runs with the Rangers, compared to five with the Astros. He’s been more reliable defensively.
In his first moment in Minute Maid Park since being released, and in the first moment of this series, far more critical for one team than the other, Gomez walked, and that was just about perfect.
And the final moment of Texas 4, Houston 3 featured Jared Hoying, whom Jeff Banister, prioritizing defense, stuck with through two extra-inning at-bats (nearly rewarded with a two-run home run to pad the 12th-inning lead Rougned Odor’s blast had built), charging in on George Springer’s flare down the right field line, intercepting the ball’s path to the grass just as Odor was arriving as well, and leaping on the run not only to avoid a collision with Odor but to glove the ball in a pocket of air space that Odor’s glove couldn’t reach or spoil.
That catch, sealing Jake Diekman’s fourth save and the Rangers’ 14th win over the Astros this season in 17 opportunities, went the Rangers’ way, sort of epitomizing Texas vs. Houston in 2016.
Sam Dyson blew the save when Evan Gattis destroyed an inside 1-1 fastball, tying things at 3-3 with one out in the ninth, and while it was Dyson’s first run allowed in three weeks (seven straight scoreless efforts), in a way that was also emblematic of Texas-Houston there was some residual benefit.
One, it gave Keone Kela an opportunity to right himself after bad outings Tuesday and Saturday in Seattle and Anaheim. He faced eight Astros in the 10th and 11th, issuing one walk and permitting one hit (an infield single that might have been a 4-3 putout had he not stuck his pitching hand out and deflected the ball) while fanning the insanely hot Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa.
Two, it gave Diekman the chance to reverse a two-week trend of uncharacteristic ineffectiveness (four games, nine of 12 batters reaching safely — four on extra-base hits and four on walks, .625/.750/1.375 slash, 45 percent strike rate).
Diekman saw three batters, starting each with strike one.
Flyout to left.
Flyout to center.
Flyout to right, with Hoying grabbing it over Odor as if he were finishing off a posterizing Lob City dime.
Three, after Fister gave Houston only five frames, A.J. Hinch entrusted an inning to each of his winning bullpen pieces (Chris Devenski, Michael Feliz, Luke Gregerson, Will Harris) before handing the ball to Ken Giles in the 10th, a sound baseball move in what was a 3-3 game since the home team can’t record a save in extra innings.
Having already expended Devenski, Feliz, Gregerson, and Harris — and not going to Pat Neshek for what would have been his first back-to-back-nights assignment since June 2 — Hinch sent Giles back out for the 11th after his 11-pitch 10th.
Giles retired the Rangers in order, as he’d done in his first frame, but it put 26 pitches of mileage on his arm, and now Giles may not be available tonight (or, theoretically, not at his sharpest if used).
Potentially being without your best pitcher in the second game of this huge series, having used him for two innings in a loss . . . .
So . . . yeah.
Whether Giles is out tonight or not, the possibility that Diekman and Kela might have turned a corner with their extra-inning work last night is super-encouraging, as this club marches toward 162+.
(Hey: Post-season T-shirts!)
Buster Olney tweeted this morning: “When HOU/TEX haven’t played each other in ’16, HOU 72-55, TEX 72-56. But Texas [is] 14-3 vs. [the] Astros and has singlehandedly wrecked their season.”
Those final four words scream hyperbolic cliché, but they’re right on in this case and, basically, inescapably true.
Texas, alone, and in all kinds of ways, has wrecked Houston’s 2016 season.
I haven’t even made mention of what Martin Perez and Jonathan Lucroy did last night, and both were arguably as big a part of the story as anyone.
I could have said a lot more about Odor’s night, which featured three more hits (run-scoring double, run-scoring single, flyout, walk, and the decisive homer — his third extra-inning game-winner this year) and padded his .333/.348/.697 season line against Houston in 69 plate appearances.
I could have spent time examining the 0-for-18 (with six strikeouts) to which the Texas staff held Houston’s formidable 1 through 4 hitters — Springer, Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Correa — on a night when even a little bit of production from those four could have changed the result.
There’s much more I could have written about Texas 4, Houston 3 from the Rangers’ standpoint.
If I were writing it from an Astros perspective, I’m afraid I’ve had said a whole lot less.
He may not be the player you’re thinking about right now if you stayed up for Texas 2, Los Angeles 1, or caught the highlights on Quick Pitch this morning.
He may not be that other player who defined the win for you, either.
Yu Darvish didn’t record the Rangers’ 84th win but he sure as hell was as responsible for it as anyone, including Adrian and Elvis, who had brilliant, decisive moments of their own.
Yu started 17 of 25 Angels with a strike and recorded 17 of his 20 outs on the ground or on strikes and issued just one walk — the first batter he faced — and scattered three hits and needed only 95 pitches to get through nearly seven even though he struck out nine and, most importantly, Yu emerged from a skidding rotation to give the Rangers a dominant effort and, next most importantly, gave the bullpen a breather, as Matt Bush and Sam Dyson were asked to record just seven outs, which they were able to do over the span of nine batters.
I can’t remember who said it, but I saw someone mention this week that run differential is one thing, but win differential is another. The Astros and Mariners are out-run-diff’ing Texas (which is +26 in wins, +19 in runs), but the Rangers now sit 9.5 and 10.5 games ahead of them, and, before this month ends, those two numbers are going to allow the Rangers to get their house in order going into 162+.
Yu Darvish shoving like he did last night is one loud step in that exact direction.
The starting pitchers’ collective ERA the last time through the rotation (38 hits allowed and 14 walks in 20 innings) is 11.70.
Which is worse than the 10.00 ERA (.324/.429/.559) that Jake Diekman sports over the last month of work (after he held hitters to a .153/.245/.241 slash with a 2.25 ERA over the first four months of the season).
The rest of this is for me, just as much as it’s for you.
A couple weeks ago, on August 24, after an ugly three-game road skid against the last-place Rays and the last-place Reds, with the Rangers seeing their lead on the division shrink to 5.5 games and on the verge of a big run of 14 against first-place Cleveland and the Mariners and Astros, I wrote this:
If, after play September 8, two weeks from tomorrow, Texas is still up at least five games in the West, I’ll feel good.
The division lead this morning is 8.5 games.
Three and a half weeks to get the pitching recalibrated.
Three and a half weeks until the awesome.
Go ahead: Make your plans for 162+.
That was exhausting.
I’m not a fan of games in which only a third of the 18 half-innings go scoreless.
Or when 16 batters reach by walk or plunk or error or wild strikeout pitch.
Or when innings last an average of 20 pitches.
Or when the only pitcher out of 11 who doesn’t allow credited runs or inherited runners to score is the one who takes the mound at 12:45 a.m.
West Coast baseball is irritating.
West Coast baseball like that is draining.
A dub’s a dub.
But, man, that was exhausting.
I got an email yesterday that I wanted to share with you.
As you know, we raised roughly $23,000 at Newberg Report Night three weeks ago, and it was split between Jose Luis Felomina, a Rangers scout in Curacao who is battling terminal cancer, and the Assist the Officer Foundation, which supports the families of fallen officers from the Dallas Police Department.
Felo sent this email, and I told him I would pass it along:
Curacao, September 5th, 2016
Dear Mr. Newberg,
I would like to extend my utmost gratitude to you and your organization for the generous donation to support me and my family in this battle. There are no words to express what this donation means to us. You can be sure that my family will make good use of this generous donation. Once again, thank you very much and keep up with the good work.
Jose Luis Felomina
My thanks to all of you as well.
The Rangers had come off a disappointing road trip, dropping three of five to the last-place Rays and the last-place Reds, and were flying back to Texas for what loomed as a very big homestand.
Four with AL Central-leading Cleveland.
Followed by six against the two teams chasing the Rangers, second-place Seattle and third-place Houston, 6.5 and 8.0 games back, respectively, each looking to capitalize on a three-game opportunity to make their September a whole lot more meaningful.
Texas split a pair of blowouts to start the Indians series, winning, 9-0, and losing, 12-1.
Since then, the Rangers have won many straight?
Let’s go, Yu.
Wins shouldn’t be frustrating, but Texas 10, Houston 8 wasn’t the most satisfying of victories, given that all the key bullpen pieces were needed in a game led by seven runs more than halfway through, and that a game which develops early the way that one did should never have us holding our breath at the end.
Not the cleanest way to get to the handshake line or the Powerade dump.
What is clean, however, is the resulting 81-54 record that radiates in mathematical baseball beauty: Half a season’s worth of wins, a third of a season in losses (which happens to be half the number of stitches on the baseball). A ratio (1/2 to 1/3) that results in that perfect and elusive .600 winning clip.
Setting aside the incidental math in favor of something perhaps more noteworthy, consider this: Texas, which has now beaten Houston 24 of 30 times since May 2015, is 12-2 against the Astros this year.
You don’t even need to reverse that 2016 number to ask what-if from a Houston perspective — if the Astros, a very good team, had merely managed to split these first 14 match-ups with the Rangers, they would be 76-58.
And Texas would be 76-59.
Correct: If the Astros, battling now to pass two teams in order to claim a Wild Card spot, had simply beaten Texas half the time so far this season, they’d be leading the West.
A year ago today, the Rangers trailed Houston in the division and had just moved into Wild Card position. And we know what happened.
This morning, the Astros aren’t in as good a spot as Texas was last year at this time, but they’re just two games out in the Wild Card race, and minutes after his club had battled back from 10-3 (with their best 2016 starter on the mound) to put the go-ahead run at the plate against their division and geographical rivals (who had their temporary number five starter going), the team they inexplicably can’t seem to beat, only to fall short in a game they’d turned from a laugher to a nail-biter, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow retweeted this:
I suppose Jon Daniels could have recirculated a tweet last night that his organization’s Dominican Summer League team has emerged from 42 DSL clubs to reach that league’s title game (to be played tomorrow) — the fourth straight year the Rangers will play for the DSL championship — but I’m pretty sure you’ll never see JD do that while his big league players are fighting in September to play in October.
Especially if they’d just lost an intense ballgame to their chief rivals. The ones they can almost never figure out a way to beat.
It made me think about Colby Rasmus’s comments a month ago after Luhnow essentially told the media (and, by extension, his own clubhouse) that, unlike the Rangers, who had just acquired Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran and Jeremy Jeffress, he wasn’t interested in taking three top minor league prospects to make his big league team better — at a time when Houston was just 5.5 games back in the division.
Said Rasmus then to the media (and, by extension, his own GM): “That shows that [the Rangers] are wanting to go out and better their team. They’ve already beaten us with what they had. I don’t doubt . . . that we can beat them on a given day. But that does show something, that they’re going out and doing that.”
Luhnow redistributes a tweet celebrating his High A farm club, while the team he’s primarily responsible for (and responsible to) is still washing off a grueling, critical two-run loss.
Wonder how former JetHawks Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, and Dallas Keuchel feel about that.
I’m fairly sure I know how Rasmus, who is going to be playing for a different organization in 2017, feels about it.
And I bet I know what Carlos Gomez, who singled and doubled and walked and scored three runs in a game decided by two runs, thinks about his own change in fortune.
I’m a big Altuve fan and a big Correa fan and a big Springer fan, but those guys would be better off having some veteran leaders around, guys who have been through the wars (here, as opposed to Cuba), and not being expected to fill that role themselves.
Gomez, too, for that matter.
Trading for the controllable Lucroy or for Beltran would have made a whole lot of sense for the Astros. Might have changed last night’s result, and possibly a good bit more (even if the farm system rankings took a hit).
But instead, it seems their GM is looking down the road to a time when Altuve and Correa and Springer, if all three are still around, will be those veteran leaders, setting the tone for Alex Bregman and A.J. Reed and whoever had drugstore champagne poured over their heads last night following Lancaster 4, Inland Empire 1.
The Astros are a lot better — right now — than their front office apparently believes.
You can look under the surface of the Rangers’ aesthetically pleasing 81-54 mark and suggest that, in some respects, they’ve been a little lucky this year.
I might look at the Astros and, in diagnosing where that club sits today and why, point at a few things under the surface as well.
David Price, with his insanely strange career mark against the Rangers (3-5, 5.52 in 13 regular season games, plus 1-6, 5.48 in six playoff starts and one relief appearance), by far his lifetime nemesis among teams he’s faced more than a couple times, served up a Shin-Soo Choo home run on his second pitch of the game, followed by an Ian Desmond line drive single and an Adrian Beltre line drive single and a (cleanup-hitting) Ryan Rua line drive single and, after a Prince Fielder double-play ground ball, an Elvis Andrus ground ball single that plated Beltre and Rua and gave Texas an early 3-0 lead.
Nick Martinez, who had held Boston off the scoreboard in the top of the first in what was just his second Rangers start of the season, threw a scoreless second and a scoreless third, and in the meantime his teammates pushed across another run in the second frame and two more in the third, ending Price’s night before a Friday night sellout crowd after just 2.1 innings, the shortest outing of the season for the five-time All-Star or for anyone else facing Texas this year.
The Red Sox (Hanley Ramirez) and Rangers (Fielder) traded home runs in the fourth, though Boston’s came with a runner on base. It was Texas 7, Boston 2, heading to the fifth.
Same score going into the sixth, when Jackie Bradley Jr.’s two-run shot tightened things a bit.
That 7-4 margin held up through the seventh, when both teams were retired in order neatly (four of six hitters on strikes), and in the eighth, when once again both clubs went three-up, three-down.
And then came the ninth inning, an outlier of epic proportions.
Jake Diekman (walk-strikeout-popout) surrendered a two-out, run-scoring double to pinch-hitting 4A catcher Sandy Leon, on the 11th pitch of the at-bat, Diekman’s 29th of the inning. Texas 7, Boston 5, one out to go, Matt Bush on for Diekman.
Mookie Betts home run. Tie game.
Dustin Pedroia walk.
Xander Bogaerts ground ball single, Pedroia to third.
Wild pitch. Boston 8, Texas 7.
David Ortiz flyout.
Koji Uehara on for the bottom of the ninth. (The great Koji Uehara, who, for me, occupies a very lightly populated category, along with Mike Napoli.)
Fielder strikes out swinging.
Elvis Andrus strikes out swinging.
Rougned Odor strikes out swinging.
Boston 8, Texas 7 (F).
It was a brutal game to lose, in its self-contained context, but in the larger scheme all it did was drop the Rangers from a season-high 10-game division lead to nine.
I don’t mean to harsh your mellow this morning. I really don’t. In fact, to make up for it momentarily, here’s a really good hi-def clip of Jonathan Lucroy doing exceptionally bad things to his own batting helmet after Odor ended Tuesday night’s baseball game by doing exceptionally bad things to 98 from Edwin Diaz with one majestic swing.
And I’ll try making your morning even a little better by suggesting to you that the best news about Texas including 21-year-old lefthander Yohander Mendez yesterday in its initial set of moves to expand the active big league roster in September is that, as a result, we now know he’s not the player to be named later in the Lucroy deal with the Brewers.
No, the reason I dug up one ugly inning from more than two months ago was that, on June 24, Texas lost a junk-kick to Boston, 8-7, and there’s something insanely remarkable about that game.
It’s the only one-run game at Globe Life Park the Rangers have lost in 2016.
They’ve won 18 of those.
Now, that’s completely unsustainable (says Hugh).
That’s right. And that’s OK.
Because it doesn’t need to be sustainable with the cushion it’s helped the team build as September play gets underway.
Past is prologue but it’s not always statistically reliable. Rosters change.
Maybe the Rangers will play four more one-run games over these last 15 at home that we now know about and maybe they’ll lose three of them.
But for now, they’re 18-1 in that discrete split, helping lead to 80-54 (a 96.7-win pace), the best September-entering record in franchise history.
None of which matters nearly as much as the effort to establish the best October(/November) record in franchise history.
Or, in the meantime, the effort to stack the odds that most of those games will be played at home, where this team, with its really weird run differential, has proven to be insanely successful in one particular type of game that, while it does little to boost that run-diff number, does a whole lot to boost confidence that the club is equipped to win the most intense battles this game has to offer, perhaps a whole lot more often than not.
This is Hugh.
Hugh leaves baseball games early.
As long as he’s done the wave.
Hugh will tell you there’s no bigger baseball fan.
Every chance he gets.
Hugh has a friend 240 miles south who really gets baseball. It’s about kicking the farm-rankings can and the MVP race and the countdown to someone combining Rasmus’s sweet hairstyle with Keuchel’s impeccable beard game.
Hugh will call you Broseph before he knows your name and bluetooths a lot and uses Axe body spray and has mad respect for the #AstrosRants guy.
You watch the games. Hugh is gonna dive into the playoff odds algorithms.
Chemistry is a school subject that he didn’t care about (because the teacher was stupid).
Hugh believes the game is played on paper and that every outcome is just a point plotted on a regression-to-the-mean vector. Win-loss records in one-run games are mirages and run differential is King (just you watch, man) and there’s no such thing as clutch. Hugh #occasionallyquits.
In fact, Hugh checked out last night when Cole Hamels gave the four-run lead back and the ball to Banny, who gave it to Alex Claudio, whose shuttle between Arlington and Round Rock must have broken down because, seriously dude, what does he throw, 78 miles per hour?
Hugh believes he can take Alex Claudio out of the park and over them mountains. You choose from which side of the plate.
Hugh says he hasn’t he really heard of Alex Claudio anyway, and Hugh bets he was once a top prospect that they should have traded for a controllable ace when he was in AA if they knew what they were doing because if prospects don’t turn into perennial All-Stars before they’re arbitration-eligible then you don’t know what you’re doing.
Hugh wonders if you’d like to know who he picked up on waivers on his fantasy team (“The Wave”) on Thursday. It was awesome. You really should hear the story.
Hugh was long gone last night when Alex Claudio (1.54 ERA over 15 appearances in his fourth stint with the Rangers this year) faced 10 Mariners and got eight of them out, seven on the ground (three to the mound) and one on strikes.
He was nowhere near a ballgame when Jurickson Profar stepped up in the eighth with a one-run deficit and rookie beast Edwin Diaz on the mound, having retired the first two Texas batters of the inning on just five pitches. He knows nothing about the professional at-bat that Profar battled through, not an at-bat at all actually since it went strike looking-foul-foul-ball-ball-ball-ball, not leading to a run but making sure Diaz didn’t get back into the dugout after just six or eight pitches.
Hugh didn’t see Ian Desmond’s four-pitch walk that followed or Carlos Beltran’s eight-pitch strikeout, and even if Hugh had, he wouldn’t have thought about the consequence of Texas possibly working to end Diaz’s night before the ninth — or to face the rookie in the ninth after he’d already racked up 24 pitches.
Hugh didn’t see Banny’s emotional postgame press conference or the awesome comments Emily Jones drew out of Rougned Odor before it or the home plate scrum (and Yu Darvish’s predictably awesome role therein) before it or Jonathan Lucroy’s tremendous on-deck bat spike and helmet spike before it or the intensity with which Odor, who had made a couple large-looming mental mistakes earlier in the game (Hugh saw one of those), locked eyes with Diaz throughout the five-pitch at-bat before all of that, which sent a 2-2 two-seamer, 98 and below the zone, 413 feet the other way at 103.17 miles per hour and which sent Lucroy’s bat and helmet forcefully to the ground and likely the disabled list and which sent Darvish and his teammates streaming out of the dugout and which sent Banny into an unusually powerful on-field celebration full of fist pumps and neck veins and bear hugs and which sent a nearly deshirted Odor to Emily’s side and which sent me into a baseball frenzy that I’m still riding this morning.
Hugh didn’t hear Eric Nadel’s Hall of Fame call of the Odor shot that ended the game right at Hugh was watching the end of TMZ.
If you see Hugh this morning, let him know a little about Texas 8, Seattle 7 once he gets through toothing his conference call.
But be prepared for his #SMDH response because, you know, going 30-8 in one-run games is gonna catch up with you eventually.
Just you watch.