You can listen to a Rangers-centric radio segment I did with Ben & Skin on ESPN Dallas last night by clicking this link:

http://www.zshare.net/audio/71823071fe489e0a/

I'll send out an email later today once the Rangers announce the autograph lineup for tomorrow's Fan Fest.  We'll have a Newberg Report set-up with a bunch of players in the Cuervo Club (which used to be the Gold Club).


BA's number two
Good and all, but rank that counts
Is now AL West


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(c) Jamey Newberg
http://www.newbergreport.com
Twitter  @newbergreport

"My expectation is that we will be extremely competitive, and if we don't win our division, I will be disappointed, because I think we've positioned ourselves to be right there with everybody else."

So says Nolan Ryan.  Quite a bit different from the message of "managed expectations" delivered to us after an 89-win season five years ago.

"JD made some very smart moves at the winter meetings. . . . [Then] we were able to get Vlad. . . . The signings we had before that were exciting, but to be able to get Vlad, it just got us all excited.  We realize that this is our year.  It's all up to us now."

That's from Ian Kinsler, one of this team's leaders.

JD agrees that the expectations are now ratcheted up - not managed:

"As a group, we expect to win, and now that we've put a plan in place to do so, we hold ourselves to that standard."

Chuck Greenberg has arrived on the battlefront late - and of course has yet to officially join the ranks - but his eyes are already getting big:

"If we succeed on the business side and continue on path on the baseball side and combine it with a dynamic market like this is, we can be and should be one of the powerhouse franchises in baseball. . . . [I]n a community as wonderful and dynamic as Metroplex with a franchise and fans who waited patiently to have their moment, to have a chance to try to deliver on that promise is awfully exciting."

Josh Hamilton thinks that delivery could be imminent: "We've got so much talent it's crazy.  The key is staying healthy. . . . If we can stay healthy as a team, we've got such a great lineup from 1-to-9, and then the pitching obviously stepped up big time last year with Nolan Ryan coming in and Mike Maddux.  It was such a dramatic difference from '08 to '09, and even if we can improve just a little bit on that going into '10, it will be a great year."

And Michael Young, whose character and mental toughness and tenacity have always set a tone, has been unusually ebullient with reporters as far as his immediate outlook is concerned:

"You look at every great baseball town, whether it's New York or Boston or Chicago or St. Louis, and there's always this great relationship between the team and the fans.  The fans are supportive and they come to see winning baseball and that's where we're heading to right now. . . . I've served time for about nine years now.  I'm ready to kind of bust out a little bit and be a part of something that's going to be memorable and fun.  This [organization] is going to be one of those jewels of baseball."

Finally, consider another Daniels remark:

"I feel a tremendous obligation to the owner to deliver.  He's given me and our group an opportunity to mold the franchise, spend resources against our vision.  It's more pride than pressure, if that makes sense."  

It's an interesting comment, since his words and Ryan's and Young's unquestionably create - invite - a certain degree of pressure with regard to the job to be done between the lines.  Pressure is something everyone on this club has played through at every level, from Darren Oliver on down to Michael Kirkman.  But the pride part, which Ryan and Young always exhibited as much of as any of their playing peers, if an extra concentration of that starts to rub off and take hold up and down the roster, then, yes, it will be important to stay healthy and catch a break or two, but there's no reason 2010 can't be the kind of season the players and the front office and the prospective owner expect it to be.

Greenberg said on a radio talk show yesterday, specifically asked about cash infusion into the roster, that the business models that the Rangers look to as the paradigm belong to the Angels and Phillies.  The answer is more textured than looking strictly at player payroll (Greenberg told Richie Whitt of the Dallas Observer: Los Angeles and Philadelphia "are smart, clever, have resources and use them wisely - those are types we can emulate"), but just for grins, USA Today had those two clubs' 2009 Opening Day payrolls ($113,709,000 and $113,004,046) as sixth and seventh highest in baseball, while Texas ($68,178,798) sat at 22nd.  

Something else to tuck away about zeroing in on Los Angeles and Philadelphia as models: both clubs were aggressive in July and August, adding Cliff Lee and Scott Kazmir to their rotations, respectively, to provide a pennant race boost.

It brings to mind a point that Tom Verducci made on MLB Network last night: The Rangers' ownership situation could very well position Texas to make an impact splash at the trade deadline, armed not only with a tremendously deep farm system (that is, trade ammunition) but also an ability (and motivation, if the club is in the race) to increase payroll that hasn't existed this winter.

That depth of prospects led ESPN's Keith Law to judge the Rangers' system, for the second straight year, as baseball's best.  Law summarized yesterday: "The AL West has suddenly become very competitive, with four well-run organizations all trying to balance immediate contention with long-term building goals, but Texas remains the best-positioned team there for long-term success."

MLB Network ran a Top 50 Prospects special last night, featuring Jonathan Mayo and John Hart as the lead analysts, and the Rangers were among the most dominant clubs featured, placing Neftali Feliz (number 7), Justin Smoak (9), Martin Perez (18), and Tanner Scheppers (39) on the list.

Baseball America's top 10 Rangers prospects:

1.    Neftali Feliz, RHP
2.    Justin Smoak, 1B
3.    Martin Perez, LHP
4.    Tanner Scheppers, RHP
5.    Jurickson Profar, SS
6.    Kasey Kiker, LHP
7.    Robbie Ross, LHP
8.    Mitch Moreland, OF/1B
9.    Danny Gutierrez, RHP
10.    Wilmer Font, RHP

The Rangers agreed to terms on a one-year deal with closer Frankie Francisco, avoiding arbitration.  Francisco will be eligible for free agency next winter.  Righthander Scott Feldman is the lone remaining arbitration case on the club, but count on him settling as well.

Texas will attend lefthander Noah Lowry's throwing session on Tuesday.  The 29-year-old, who hasn't pitched since 2007 due to shoulder problems (stemming from thoracic outlet syndrome), was the Rangers' 19th-round pick in 1999 but didn't sign.

Baltimore designated righthander Dennis Sarfate for assignment.  Texas took Sarfate in the 15th round of that same 1999 draft, a stellar crop even without Lowry and Sarfate coming to terms.  Among the Rangers' picks were eventual big leaguers Colby Lewis, Aaron Harang, Hank Blalock, Kevin Mench, Jason Botts, Nick Regilio, Andy Cavazos, and Jason Jones, plus Justin Echols, who would go to Montreal in the 2004 trade for Chris Young.

Officials from two other big league clubs told ESPN's Jayson Stark that the Rangers' signing of Lewis to a two-year, $5 million deal was among the best under-the-radar moves of the winter.

Veteran corner infielder Chad Tracy's non-roster deal with the Cubs is not good news for Blalock.

Ben Sheets at a surprising $10 million (and as much as $12 million if he reaches several workload incentives, all short of 200 innings) - given what a number of healthy, reasonably effective starting pitchers have pulled in on the open market this winter - is a pretty clear indication that the league gave Oakland the same dictate that it gave Florida: Spend your revenue-sharing money on the roster.  If he pitches well, the A's can trade off a third of that commitment in July for prospects (or at least recoup a pair of first-round picks when he signs elsewhere next winter).

Seventeen-year-old Dominican righthander Rafael DePaula, coming off a one-year suspension by MLB for lying about his age, is drawing interest from the Yankees and Red Sox, and ESPN's Jorge Arangure suggests Texas is in the mix, too.

University of Florida wide receiver Riley Cooper reportedly no-showed his Rangers physical a week and a half ago, an appearance that would have netted him half of his $250,000 signing bonus.  Cooper has apparently decided to pursue an NFL career instead of playing minor league baseball.  He'll presumably land on the Rangers' restricted list, which currently houses Alexi Ogando and Omar Beltre and for years included Ricky Williams.

A "friend and business associate of Ryan" told the Austin American-Statesman that he expects the Round Rock Express to replace the Oklahoma City RedHawks as the Rangers' AAA affiliate after the 2010 season.

The Florence Freedom of the independent Frontier League signed righthander Ryan Schlecht.  The New Jersey Jackals of the independent Can-Am League signed infielder Myron Leslie.

Chuck Morgan has offered to emcee Tuesday's Newberg Report Book Release Party at Sherlock's in Dallas, which will include Q&A sessions with Chuck Greenberg, Jake Krug, and Michael Young as well as a live auction of various Rangers players' equipment plus Young-autographed copies of Carson Leslie's book, "Carry Me," and of the 2010 Bound Edition.  (Copies of Carson's and my book will be on sale as well.)  Winning bid proceeds will benefit Wipe Out Kids Cancer.

Hope to see you there, and maybe at the awards dinner tomorrow night and Fan Fest on Saturday.  Once the Rangers release the autograph schedule for Saturday, I'll let you know.


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To join the free Newberg Report mailing list so you can get e-mail deliveries of every edition of the newsletter, daily minor league game recaps, and frequent Newberg Report News Flashes, go to www.newbergreport.com and click the "Mailing List" link on the top menu bar.


(c) Jamey Newberg
http://www.newbergreport.com
Twitter  @newbergreport
Post your own review of the 2010 Bound Edition: Amazon link

Well, this oughtta be cool.

One week from tonight, Tuesday, February 2, Chuck Greenberg is going to make a public appearance.

At the second Newberg Report Book Release Party.

Michael Young and Rangers assistant director of player development Jake Krug have already committed to do Q&A sessions with us that night, and now Mr. Greenberg has agreed to do the same.  He'll have a microphone in hand and will take your questions, too.

The party will begin at 6:00 p.m. at Sherlock's Baker St. Pub (9100 N. Central Expressway, at the northeast corner of Central and Park Lane).  We'll plan to go until 8:30 or so.  

We'll have the 2010 Bound Edition for sale, as well as Carson Leslie's book, "Carry Me."  This won't be an autograph event, but Michael will sign five of my books and five of Carson's and we'll auction the signed books off live to the 10 highest bidders.  Professional auctioneer Luther Davis will help us get the job done, and there's a strong chance we'll also have some baseballs, bats, batting gloves, and other good stuff donated by a number of Rangers players up for auction.

All winning bid proceeds will benefit Wipe Out Kids Cancer.

I'll get back to you with more details.

Make plans to join us Tuesday night.

It's basketball season.  It's hockey season.  College football is finished, and so is pro football for most in these parts, although this was the ultimate weekend each year on the NFL schedule.

At halftime of Colts-Jets, I threw a red cap on backwards and drove to Tom Thumb to pick up a couple things.

As I got to the front of the checkout line, the checker - late teens, maybe early 20s - looked up and said, "Rangers cap?"

Me: "Yep."

Checker: "All RIGHT. . . . You know, the Angels are tough to beat, but they had a rough winter.  This could be our year."

I smiled, and said I thought he was right.

The thing that struck me was not so much the kid's optimism, but instead that he saw a the back of a red ballcap, assumed it had a "T" on the other side, and wanted to talk Rangers baseball with a complete stranger. 

I'm not sure I remember that happening during the summer, let along conference championship weekend in January. 

This is good.  I've mentioned how there seem to be more Texas caps and T-shirts and bumper stickers around town over the last year, and while I get hit with plenty of Rangers small talk around the office and the kids' soccer games and dinner with friends, it's different when one stranger brings it up to another. 

It feels like there's a difference these days, maybe subtle, but noticeable. 

There are those phrases that seem to turn up whenever Chuck Greenberg is interviewed.  This fan base is a "sleeping giant."  It's time "to awaken the beast."  And in the press release issued by the Rangers on Saturday night, his comment:

"We are fortunate to be assuming the stewardship of a franchise poised for greatness.  The tremendous foundation of talent that has been assembled on both the major and minor league levels, combined with our passionate commitment to achieve excellence in every facet of the organization's operation, and the pent-up thirst for success we observe from our fans every day, creates the opportunity for the Rangers to become one of the great franchises in baseball."

The fans' pent-up thirst for success. 

I think there's more of that, and less baseball cynicism, than there's been around here in a long time, no matter what your favorite columnist is telling you.  Rangers Baseball Express, LLC isn't the reason for the growing buzz - this groundswell has been developing for a while - but the Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan investment group, funded primarily by Co-Chairmen of the Board Ray Davis and Bob Simpson and a number of other local investors, comes in at a time when there's a barrage of arrows flying in the right direction, and the group seems motivated to push this thing forward, not derail the momentum by giving in to an urge to shake things up just because it can.  Ryan's continued presence is key in that regard.

This is an exciting time.

There's really not a lot I can add about the latest hurdle cleared in the sale of the team - it's all been said by people closer to the situation than I am (and unlike the games played on the field, we don't get to see what the writers are privy to) - but I will refer back to something I wrote back in May:

==============================

Word broke yesterday that Tom Hicks is open to selling a majority stake in the Rangers.  I don't have much to say about that other than (1) I hope Nolan Ryan chooses to be a big player in this (it's clear that Hicks wants him to be) and (2) it's crucial that, whatever transition takes place, the baseball operations crew is allowed to stay on the course that it laid out two years ago and has this franchise poised to be where we all want it be. 

Hicks gets far too much criticism from the mainstream media, who choose not to recognize the guts and foresight it took to make Jon Daniels, who at the time had less than five years in baseball, his general manager, and the patience and lack of ego it took to authorize the plan that Daniels presented to him in May 2007 to trade Mark Teixeira and shift focus and resources to scouting and player development and a wholesale effort to load up on young talent through the draft and international market and trades, a philosophy that's a lot less flashy and far more gradual than many owners would have signed off on. 

Baseball America's Jim Callis in an ESPN chat session yesterday:

     Q: Bedard trade for Orioles . . . best trade in baseball in 10 years?

     Callis:  Check out the Mark Teixeira trade to the Braves.

The Herschel Walker trade wasn't the Herschel Walker Trade until the Cowboys turned the Minnesota draft picks into Emmitt Smith and Darren Woodson and Russell Maryland and Kevin Smith and three Lombardi Trophies.  The Teixeira trade is no Herschel Walker Trade - yet.  But there's no question that without it, this franchise wouldn't be in nearly as good a position as everyone agrees that it is.  Hicks should get some credit for believing in, and consenting to, the plan that Jon Daniels and his crew proposed and have now been executing for two very good years.

Don't count on the general columnists recognizing Hicks's role in that, however.

Or acknowledging in print the millions of Hicks dollars that may not have gone to player payroll (a favorite topic of the media, rarely mentioning Ben Sheets or Torii Hunter or Daisuke Matsuzaka or Barry Zito or Carlos Delgado as free agent acquisitions he has consistently greenlighted even though they'd have busted the budget) but did go to annual decisions to pay out of slot to pave the way for the drafting and signing of the right high school and college players (Teixeira, Derek Holland, Justin Smoak, Taylor Teagarden, Julio Borbon, Jake Brigham, Neil Ramirez, Marcus Lemon, Robbie Ross, Clark Murphy, Johnny Whittleman, Kyle Ocampo, Matt Thompson, and others), to outspend the competition in Latin America (examples: Martin Perez, Fabio Castillo, Cristian Santana, and Richard Alvarez, plus the aggregate of a Preller/Welke/Batista class like 2006's Wilmer Font/Wilfredo Boscan/Kennil Gomez/Carlos Pimentel/Geuris Grullon/Macumba haul), to pay top dollar to make sure we had the hitting coach and pitching coach we'd zeroed in on, and to hire Nolan Ryan.

The Ryan hiring was, of course, an inspired one that has paid off in many ways and will continue to do so, and though the media has been wholly supportive of Ryan's arrival and impact, rarely is Hicks credited for bringing him in at what had to be a significant financial investment.

Hicks wants to win, and though some with newspaper space will continue to disparage the team payroll (for a roster that today maintains the best record in the American League) and ignore all else, if Hicks wasn't interested in spending to win, would we have Holland and Smoak and Perez and Mike Maddux . . . and Ryan?

What I'm hoping for, if Hicks does indeed sell controlling interest in the Rangers, is continuity.  I would have faith in a Ryan-led ownership to insist on that and to make it happen.  So might someone coming in from the outside, but if that's where this is headed, I sure hope that stability is a priority for whoever that might be. 

I guarantee you that the Angels and A's and Mariners would be thrilled to see someone come in here and push massive changes.

==============================

I get the sense that the Greenberg-Ryan group is all about continuity and stability, in building rather than rebuilding, and I'm confident that the progress of the last couple years is about to be boosted, that is, on the field, just like the checker at Tom Thumb sees it, and not only without the interference of a new ownership group dying to make widespread changes, but instead with that group's full support of what's happening here and the contributions it's positioned to make to help this team take the next step, and the one after that.


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(c) Jamey Newberg
http://www.newbergreport.com
Twitter  @newbergreport
Post your own review of the 2010 Bound Edition: Amazon link

 

The Rangers' top eight starters in 2005, in order of games started, were Chris Young, Kenny Rogers, Chan Ho Park, Pedro Astacio, Ryan Drese, Ricardo Rodriguez, Juan Dominguez, and Joaquin Benoit.  Despite the club's middle-of-the-road 79-win finish, the rotation was bad, compiling a composite 5.04 ERA.

Jon Daniels was promoted to general manager at the end of that season.  To suggest that overhauling the rotation was among his priorities would be grossly understating things.  Astonishingly, the top eight Texas starters in 2006 had not one name in common with the previous season's eight: Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, John Koronka, Kameron Loe, Robinson Tejeda, Adam Eaton, John Rheinecker, and Edinson Volquez made the club's most 2006 starts.  

Still, lots of journeymen.

The top eight starters in 2007: Millwood, Padilla, Loe, Brandon McCarthy, Tejeda, Jamey Wright, Kason Gabbard, and Rheinecker.  

McCarthy, Wright, and Gabbard in place of Koronka, Eaton, and Volquez (whose 2006 ERA was 7.29, after a 14.21 debut in 12.2 innings in 2005).  Without hindsight, it was probably a slight upgrade going into 2007.

The top eight starters in 2008: Millwood, Padilla, Feldman, Matt Harrison, Gabbard, Luis Mendoza, Sidney Ponson, and Jason Jennings.  

Feldman, Harrison, Mendoza, Ponson, and Jennings in place of Loe, McCarthy, Tejeda, Wright, and Rheinecker.  Push at best.

Big changes going into 2009: a commitment to youth over journeymen, an improved defense, and the arrival of Mike Maddux.

The top eight starters in 2009: Feldman, Millwood, Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, Padilla, McCarthy, Harrison, and Dustin Nippert.  And they were the top eight of just 10 starters overall (Doug Mathis and Kris Benson started two times each).  That's after Texas averaged 14 starters a year from 2005 through 2008.

Better.  Much, much better.

Going into 2010, the probable top eight at the moment: Feldman, Rich Harden, Colby Lewis, Hunter, Holland, Harrison, McCarthy, and Neftali Feliz.  

Maybe even C.J. Wilson, but he's going to be either top five or not on the list at all (hard to imagine him joining the rotation mid-season).  Bet on him returning to the bullpen.  Eric Hurley won't be ready Opening Day, but he should be before the All-Star Break.  

Compare the 2010 group to 2009.

Can Feldman repeat?  Don't know, but he's a far better bet going into 2010 than he was going into 2009.

Holland and Hunter and McCarthy and Harrison: Probably fair to expect more out of the first three with 2009 under their belts.

Harden instead of Millwood: Works for me.

Lewis instead of Padilla: As much of an unknown as Lewis might be this second time around, there's no question which of those two you'd take.

Feliz instead of Nippert: There's a reason that, though both are still around, the 21-year-old is the one getting the rotation shot.

I'm not sure I'd be able to argue that the 2009 starter crop, at least in advance of the season, was in better shape than the 2010 group.

Assuming Feldman, Harden, and Lewis are locks, the competition for the final two spots coming out of camp will leave four of Hunter, Holland, Harrison, McCarthy, Feliz, and Wilson to evaluate for bullpen roles alongside Frankie Francisco, Darren O'Day, Darren Oliver, Chris Ray, Mathis, and Nippert.  

And that doesn't even account for Rule 5 selection Ben Snyder, or Guillermo Moscoso and Pedro Strop, who showed flashes in 2009, or Warner Madrigal, who did so in 2008.  Big depth.

While Texas is probably done for the winter (with the exception of adding a backup catcher - probably of the non-roster variety - and possibly another non-roster starting pitcher willing to take a AAA assignment), there the Rangers were on Tuesday, among at least eight teams attending Ben Sheets's two-inning simulated game in Monroe, Louisiana.  Maddux and Don Welke were on hand to evaluate Sheets, who had agreed in principle to a two-year contract with the Rangers last year before a failed physical scuttled the deal.

One unidentified scout in attendance suggested the Rangers, Mets, and Cubs were the leading candidates to sign Sheets.  Other stories have the Mariners and A's in the mix.  I have my doubts that he'll end up here.

Yes, Texas is looking to Lewis to replace Millwood's innings and production (an average the last three years of 11 wins and a 4.58 ERA over 180 innings) at a dramatically lower cost.  But that overlooks the addition of Harden.  Look at it this way: The Rangers were on the hook to pay Millwood $12 million in 2010 once his contract vested last summer.  Instead, they will pay Lewis $1.75 million this year, will send $3 million to the Orioles to help pay Millwood, and will owe Harden a guaranteed $7.5 million (including the buyout).  Lewis and Harden are here at virtually the same cost to the club as Millwood would have been himself.

Another point to clarify: Yes, McCarthy and Ray both have options (I believe each has two, despite what you might have read elsewhere) but would have to clear waivers in order to be optioned, because they reached the active big league roster more than three years ago.  However, the waivers are revocable, and thus teams generally don't block waivers of that kind.  (Also, neither has the requisite five years of big league service needed to decline an option.)

Outfielder Greg Golson was designated for assignment yesterday to make room for infielder Khalil Greene on the 40-man roster.  (Another player will have to be removed from the roster to make room for Lewis.)  

Golson, acquired last winter from Philadelphia for outfielder John Mayberry Jr., has a plus arm and plus speed, can play all three outfield spots well, and has the type of raw power that completes a package that has had scouts waiting for the reincarnation of Ron Gant for years.  But he hasn't hit, regressing from .282/.333/.434 with 13 home runs in AA in 2008 to .258/.299/.344 with two homers in AAA in 2009, and not only did Julio Borbon predictably race past him on the club's depth chart, but fellow speed/defense type Craig Gentry got the September nod rather than Golson, notable in that Gentry's addition cost Texas an extra roster move (the loss of Thomas Diamond on waivers).  

Golson has two options remaining and would seem to be a strong candidate to be claimed off waivers.  If Texas perceives that to be the likely result, the club could look to trade the 24-year-old for a non-roster prospect during this 10-day window before running him out on the waiver wire in hopes of keeping him.

The Rangers settled on one-year deals with Josh Hamilton ($3.25 million, with several award-based incentives), Wilson ($3.1 million), and Ray ($975,000), and two arbitration-eligibles remain: Feldman (seeking $2.9 million, club offering $2.05 million) and Francisco ($3.6 million vs. $3 million).

John Perrotto of Baseball Prospectus recently reported that Texas and San Francisco could be the leading contenders to sign catcher Yorvit Torrealba, since which time the Giants signed Bengie Molina.  Perrotto suggests San Diego and Seattle could also be in on Torrealba.

Rest in peace, Bobby Bragan.

The early buzz on Colombian 16-year-old catcher Jorge Alfaro has been considerable.  He flashes tools at the plate and behind it.
 
Texas named Joe Furukawa coordinator of Pacific Rim operations.

Padilla signed a one-year deal to stay with the Dodgers.  It will pay $4.025 million, with a deferred $1 million signing bonus.

Seattle locking Felix Hernandez up through 2014 isn't great news for Texas, but something about that guy makes me think a Carlos Zambrano path isn't out of the question. 

I've always been a Joel Pineiro fan as well, and the Angels did well to land him for two years and $16 million. 

Milwaukee and Todd Coffey avoided arbitration.  I mention that as much for the reason that the contract settlement is for the unusual figure of $2,025,002 as for his pseudo-cousinhood to the Newberg Report.

ESPN's Buster Olney wrote that "[a] numbers-oriented friend recently ran a 1,000-season simulation of the AL West, and in most cases, the Rangers won the division, and in most cases, the last-place team was the Mariners."

Outfielder Engel Beltre is one of 11 players on Baseball America's "All-Non-Top 10 All-Stars," comprised of prospects who missed their clubs' BA top 10 lists.  ANTTAS alums include Josh Hamilton, Chris Davis, and Howie Kendrick.

The Rangers released minor league righthanders Dustin Brader, Jake Geglein, and Brock Piper.

Boston signed righthander Edwin Moreno.  Houston got utility man Jason Bourgeois through waivers and outrighted him to AAA Round Rock. 

The Kansas City T-Bones of the independent Northern League re-signed first baseman Jim Fasano.

Does anyone have a iPod of 40 GB or more you want to sell?  I've got a 20 GB iPod I'd put into the deal and would pay you the difference.

We'll be set up at Fan Fest at Rangers Ballpark on January 30, hosting autograph guests this year in the Cuervo Club rather than the Diamond Club.  We'll have the player list at some point as we get closer to the event.  (Last year, we had Michael Young, Michael Ballard, Holland, Kasey Kiker, Tim Murphy, Blake Beavan, Andrew Laughter, Feliz, Michael Main, and Kevin Richardson.) 

Overall, more than 50 current and former Rangers players and coaches will be at Fan Fest to sign autographs.  There will also be the standard activities, including Q&A sessions with players, club officials, and announcers; opportunities to run the bases, catch pop-ups, and hit in the indoor batting cages; pitching, hitting, and catching clinics led by Rangers coaches and alumni; silent auction and memorabilia sales; and season ticket and mini-plan Select-A-Seat sales.  Admission is $10 for adults and $5 for children 13 and under.  Parking is free.

Eleanor Czajka has gathered links to stories and photos from last month's Newberg Report Book Release Party at this link.

It's confirmed: The second book release party will be on Tuesday, February 2, at Sherlock's in Dallas (9100 N. Central Expressway, at the northeast corner of Central and Park Lane).  Time to be determined, but most likely starting at 6:00 or 7:00 p.m.  We'll have the 2010 Bound Edition for sale, as well as Carson Leslie's book, "Carry Me."  Michael Young will appear for a Q&A session, and we might have another Q&A guest or two as well. 

This will not be an autograph event, but I think we're going to have Michael sign five of my books and five of Carson's and make the signed books available to the 10 highest bidders.  We might even bring a professional live auctioneer out to liven things up.  All winning bid proceeds will benefit Wipe Out Kids Cancer.

Yes, I know "Lost" premieres that night.  TiVo is your friend.

Harden & Lewis
Both for no more than Millwood
Does that work for you?


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To join the free Newberg Report mailing list so you can get e-mail deliveries of every edition of the newsletter, daily minor league game recaps, and frequent Newberg Report News Flashes, go to www.newbergreport.com and click the "Mailing List" link on the top menu bar.


(c) Jamey Newberg
http://www.newbergreport.com
Twitter  @newbergreport
Post your own review of the 2010 Bound Edition: Amazon link

 

Out of the corner of my eye, I could see Max, next to me on the couch, checking me out from the corner of his eye, either startled by how steamed I was that Terence Newman left Gerald Sensabaugh hung out to dry or, more likely, measuring how steamed I was as a way of figuring out how steamed it was OK for him to be.  License to fume.

But this isn't about Minnesota 34, Dallas 3, which, along with Alabama 37, UT 21, I think, has been Max's Pittsburgh 21, Dallas 17 entry into Sports Matterdom.  

I didn't have it in mind that Sunday's playoff game or the BCS Championship would be bonding moments for me and Max.  I did think about how good it was to have him care that much, at about a year younger than I was for Super Bowl X.  I'm not great company when there's a game on that I care a lot about - unless it's with someone else who cares that much.  Max is growing into that role.  Good.

I didn't think of those as bonding moments any more so than a week ago when Erica's frustration at not grasping the new improper fraction exercises gave way to mastery, proven by the huge smile on her face.

But they could have been bonding moments for them.

There are things we're lucky to be able to share with our kids.  Not enough, maybe.  But they're there.  Sometimes the simple ones are the most lasting.

Nothing's guaranteed.  Not playoff wins, math making sense, time with your kids.

I'm not sure why a couple moments late in Super Bowl X have never faded from my memory, even after 34 years to the day.  Maybe it was the first time I felt gut-punched by Sports Matterdom, and saw that Dad was experiencing the same thing, giving me all the approval I needed at age six, without even knowing he was doing it.  His disgust authorized mine, empowered it.  It was a bond, early on.

Ballgames don't really matter, of course.  The outcomes don't, at least, not to most people.  But there are many reasons sports are super-important to me, and I think to Max, and I know they were to Carson Leslie, too.  Maybe in the moment it's about the final score or the play-calling or the execution on the 6-4-3.  Ultimately, though there's character being forged.  Focus.  Competitive spirit, leadership, professionalism.  Learning to handle adversity and use it to your advantage.  Persistence, resilience, and heart.

Three things that struck home today, not unrelated to each other: I'm over Minnesota 34, Dallas 3.  I wish I knew Carson Leslie a lot longer than I did.  And I've never looked forward to a baseball season more, or to the next set of decimal coefficients to tackle, together.


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32 sleeps.


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As the league's December 15 deadline for a potential Rangers buyer to be identified and granted exclusive negotiating rights approached, we were prepped for that to be the Chuck Greenberg/Nolan Ryan group.  Then, on December 2, according to some reports, the Dennis Gilbert group seemed to break from the pack and settle into the lead.  Then, Greenberg/Ryan again.  Jim Crane then emerged on the 15th as the new frontrunner.  Then, late in the day, Greenberg/Ryan got the nod.

Those of you who negotiate or mediate as part of your day-to-day know that, no matter how much progress is made early on, no matter how things seem to be going, and most notably no matter how much time has been set aside for the negotiations, the 10th and 11th hours are almost always the most productive.

Just as I refrained from commenting on the ownership story before the December 15 announcement that the Greenberg/Ryan group had secured the 30-day negotiating rights, I'm not going to fire off status updates on whether the two sides look like they're going to get this done.  I'll let you know when there's actual news.  As we talked about yesterday, that may be today.  But it might not.

Righthander Colby Lewis's two-year deal, according to Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, will apparently pay $5 million with another $1 million in incentives.  It's less guaranteed money than Jason Kendall, Danys Baez, and John Grabow are getting this winter on their two-year contracts.  Based on what Lewis has done in Japan the last two years (15-8, 2.68 and 11-9, 2.96, leading the league in strikeouts both seasons with a combined 369 in 354.1 innings - while issuing only 46 walks), and recognizing that Texas has had Jim Colborn in place scouting the Pacific Rim that whole time (that is, it's not as if the Rangers are just reading stat lines and relying on second-hand accounts), I feel good about this Lewis move, particularly with its relatively modest financial commitment.

The competition for rotation spots in camp is going to be interesting. 

Once the Lewis and Khalil Greene signings are made official, two players will come off the 40-man roster.  Candidates would seem to include Joaquin Arias, Luis Mendoza, and Joe Inglett, none of whom have options, and maybe Greg Golson and Brandon Boggs.

Yes, it was disappointing (though not surprising) to see Florida and Josh Johnson to come to terms on a four-year ($39 million) extension yesterday, but I'm not fully discouraged.  It might turn out that it's easier to trade for Johnson (who did not receive a no-trade clause) a couple years from now than to battle the usual suspects at free agency time.  Especially with the deal being heavily backloaded (to replicate Johnson's arbitration years up front), expect the Marlins to try to move him during the last two years of the contract, which call for $13.75 million each.  A trade would cost Texas several important young players rather than just a forfeited first-round draft pick, but Johnson, as long as he stays healthy, will be worth it.

I'll let you know if there's any ownership news, whenever any of it comes down.

          Peek in that window
          Hurry!  Before it slams shut!
          Or, you know, doesn't.


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I heard on one talk show yesterday that because there's been media speculation but next to no news filtering out of the negotiations to transfer ownership of the Rangers from Hicks Sports Group to the Greenberg-Ryan Group, the deal therefore must be in trouble and we ought to brace ourselves for some bad news.

Really?

This is not a Texas walkoff win over Boston, or a trade between the Rangers and Reds, or the hiring of a new hitting coach, where the principals have some level of responsibility to bring the press up to date, and maybe even talk about the process that led to the result.  This is a complicated transaction, with large moving parts, time-sensitive and issue-sensitive.  To expect the parties to spend any time updating the media on negotiations is crazy.  

Think about what Jon Daniels and nearly every other general manager in sports will say when asked by a reporter for a remark or two about rumored trade discussions or free agent negotiations: "Not going to comment on that."  There are plenty of reasons that should be the only response.

Why would anyone expect there to be any comment, any public progress reports, any news regarding a process that's a similarly unfinished work in progress, only on a much larger, more complex, more consequential level?  Don't blame the press for the absence of concrete developments to report so far.  

Maybe we'll hear some news today, maybe we won't.  (Actually, we don't really know for sure if the 30-day window that was triggered on December 15 shuts today or tomorrow.  Reports differ.)  And if we don't hear anything, it's not necessarily catastrophic.  It's been reported in a number of places that the 30-day window isn't inflexible - it may turn out that the deadline gets extended for some period of time.  

Hang in there.  

Khalil Greene passed his club physical and his acquisition should be made official soon.  When it is, someone (the optionless Joaquin Arias?) will have to come off the 40-man roster to make room.  

Greene played nothing but shortstop in the big leagues until last June, when he slid over to third base for St. Louis, but he's expected to prepare himself in Rangers camp to play all four infield spots.

What do these players have in common: Roy Halladay, John Lackey, Javier Vazquez, Edwin Jackson, Aroldis Chapman, Chone Figgins, Jason Bay, and Curtis Granderson?

The Angels were reportedly interested in every one of those players this off-season, and in each case on a short list of the leading contenders to get them.

Not one will go to camp with Los Angeles.

Speaking of the Angels, here's something I wrote almost 10 years ago (in the August 26, 2000 Newberg Report):

The cover story in the current issue of Baseball Weekly is on the coming of age of Vladimir Guerrero.  After discussing the fact that the Dodgers signed his brother Wilton but passed on Vlad, then age 16, despite scouting him for eight months, the article has the following to say:

"The same year, 1992, the Rangers gave him a tryout.  Their scouts agreed with the Dodgers: He wasn't big-league material.  'Hector Acevedo of the Rangers saw me and said I was a tigrazo.  That I had una cara de tigre (face of a tiger),' Guerrero says.  In the Dominican Republic, the word tigre can mean a streetwise kid, but it also can mean an undisciplined young boy, a thug, a hood.  To call him a tigrazo was an insult. 'I didn't say anything back to him,' Guerrero says, and smiles.  'If someone does not know you, they should not put a label on you.  But, thanks to God, I'm here in the big leagues with another team.  And now (the Rangers) wish I was playing with them.'"

Acevedo spent about ten years in the Ranger organization as an international scout, leaving last season.  

Some more detail on Guerrero's Rangers contract: He's reportedly set to make $5.5 million in 2010, with an added $900,000 in incentives for days spent on the active roster.  The mutual option for 2011 is apparently for $9 million, with the $1 million buyout payable if either side opts out.

At the moment, Texas will draft 15th, 22nd, 43rd, and 47th in June.  I believe the third pick will fall to number 45 (once Type A free agent Jose Valverde and Type B Rod Barajas sign with new teams), and the fourth pick to 49 (not 50 since Type B Brian Shouse signed a minor league contract with Boston rather than a roster deal).

(Think Shouse is second-guessing his decision to turn down Tampa Bay's arbitration offer?)

Something to tuck away:

Oklahoma City's player development contract with the Rangers expires after the 2010 season.  So does Round Rock's PDC with the Astros.  Nolan Ryan, of course, owns the Express.

Bakersfield's PDC with Texas expires after 2010 as well . . . and so does Atlanta's PDC with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans - a High A franchise that Chuck Greenberg owns.

How about this note from Kevin Goldstein in his Rangers Top 11 Prospects feature: 16-year-old shortstop Jurickson Profar drew 26 walks while striking out only eight times over 91 at-bats in a secondary Dominican League this summer.

MLB has reportedly chastised the Marlins for bending the rules of the Basic Agreement by pocketing too much of the revenue sharing dollars they receive each year rather than allocating the money toward player salaries.  If forced to boost payroll by another $10 million or so, the two most likely beneficiaries could be second baseman Dan Uggla, who is set to land something in the range of $8 million in arbitration, or righthander Josh Johnson, with whom the club has been unable to come to terms on a multi-year extension.  (Of course, the sticking point in those negotiations was reportedly a fourth guaranteed year, not the level of commitment for the 2010 season.)  

Do you doubt the sweeping influence of the weekly Newberg Report haiku?  Yahoo! Sports just kicked off its off-season series of team features with a Jeff Passan story that ended this way:

Royals in Haiku
One hundred losses
A Kansas City birthright
Futility lives

John Sickels, in reviewing the Astros' farm system earlier this week, named righthander Matt Nevarez that organization's number 11 prospect.  

If Nevarez (traded with infielder Jose Vallejo for Ivan Rodriguez last summer) were still in the Rangers system, he'd have fallen somewhere in the 40s for me.

Judging all 30 clubs' drafts over the last four years, only two teams (San Francisco and Tampa Bay) are in the midst of a stronger three-year run than Texas, according to Baseball America.  (The Rangers and Dodgers were tied for third.)  In the four-year study, only Houston ranked lower overall than Seattle and the Angels.

University of Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy Jr. is not only the son of the former Rangers marketing director, but was apparently also a Rangers batboy himself.

Righthander Derrick Turnbow is expected to throw for 16 teams tomorrow in Phoenix.
 
Houston, making room for newly signed righthander Brett Myers, designated infielder/outfielder Jason Bourgeois for assignment.  The Astros also signed first baseman Chris Shelton to a minor league deal.

Lefthander Scott Eyre retired.

The Grand Prairie Airhogs of the independent American Association named Curtis Wilkerson bench coach (for manager Pete Incaviglia).  The Airhogs also resigned infielder David Espinosa, who would have become a Rangers prospect had Kenny Rogers not vetoed a trade to Cincinnati in 2002.

Doug Harris is the new director of player development for the Nationals.

Jon Daniels will be the keynote speaker at the Hickory Crawdads' "2010 Hot Stove" event next Wednesday.

Stay tuned for news on the Rangers' ownership transfer.  But not on the edge of your seat.


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Post your own review of the 2010 Bound Edition: Amazon link
 

When you watch the 10:00 local sportscasts tonight, if the Rangers manage to elbow in for 30 seconds between Cowboys and Mark McGwire, you'll probably see one of two automatic shots from a day like this: Vladimir Guerrero trying on number 27 in his home whites, or Guerrero shaking the hand of his new manager, or general manager.

Those aren't the shots I hope you get to see.

Guerrero, conducting himself with what has to be the least swagger of any sports bad-*** you can imagine, was polite, reserved, seemingly almost ashamed of his greatness throughout today's press conference.  His keel was totally even.

Until the presser ended, and he stepped down from the head table, and got bear hugs from three new teammates who'd been standing in the back of the room during the whole presser, along with one old teammate.  From the look on Vlad's face as he hugged it out with Josh Hamilton, then Michael Young, then Ian Kinsler, and then Darren Oliver, you'd think these were his old frat brothers, not longtime rivals.  It wasn't an exchange of respect as much as it was a "welcome aboard / damn glad to be here" thing, with a bigger smile frozen on Guerrero's face than you'll probably ever see from him between the lines.  It was very cool.  

It's what I choose to imagine we'll see a year from now when Josh Beckett is introduced to the local press.

The great Brad Newton was there today, and I'm only disappointed that his vantage point during that impromptu moment, as luck would have it, was behind Guerrero rather than in front.

 

If we're fortunate, at least one of the many TV cameras on hand had their lenses trained on Guerrero's face and captured the moment, and their producers will decide tonight to run that footage in place of the clichéd handshake or shirt fitting.


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Maybe you play fantasy league baseball.  Maybe you're really, really good at it.

It's the off-season and your perennially contending roster has just a few holes.  You need, among a couple other things, a DH and a utility infielder.  Frustratingly, you might have to part with a few prospects you love in order to get the big bat (unless your son also owns a team in the league and you can foist your second-tier minor leaguers on him), but you bite the bullet and give something up to get Adam Lind.  For the utility spot, you make it a priority and outbid everyone at the spring auction, landing Mark DeRosa, whose versatility (not to mention his production) is exactly what you need to make another run at a title.

One of the really helpful things about running the Stiff Pocorobas in your bad-*** keeper league is that Lind and DeRosa have no say in the matter.

The big leagues aren't fantasy leagues.

In the real thing, you not only have to find the right guy.  You also have to convince that guy (at least in free agency, and sometimes in trades) that you're the right team.

Would Ron Washington have liked to have Marco Scutaro, tied by several reputable media outlets to Texas six weeks ago, on his bench?  Sure.  But that speculation was just goofy, because Scutaro was never going to accept a reserve role (or get paid like a starter to fill one).

Jamey Carroll?  Miguel Tejada?  Both believe they can start.  Carroll just might with the Dodgers.  Tejada may land with the Cardinals, as the everyday third baseman.

Bobby Crosby and Alfredo Amezaga?  Different backgrounds, but both utility players at this point, with a chance to start for a bad team.  Crosby signed with the Pirates because there's a chance he ends up playing every day.  Amezaga has been sorting through what his agent has suggested is interest from close to half the league.  He's probably going to end up with a deal not a whole lot unlike what Crosby got from Pittsburgh ($1 million with another $500,000 in incentives), and will likely choose his team based on opportunity to play.

The utility infielder in Texas faces a different lot.  He's injury insurance.  The job behind Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, and Elvis Andrus may be one of the worst in the game, in terms of opportunity to play.  How many games will those three rest?  Twenty total?  There doesn't stand to be a whole lot of days those three will slide over to DH.  They won't ever be pinch-hit for.  They don't need late-inning defensive replacements.

You can add DeRosa to your keeper league roster, but you're not going to get him or Scutaro or Carroll or Amezaga to choose Texas.  Omar Vizquel said he wanted to play in a bigger metropolitan market, but backing up Gordon Beckham, Alexei Ramirez, and Mark Teahen is also a better gig than he would have had here, especially with Andrus no longer the kid that the club was merely counting on being ready for the big leagues.

What did Texas have to offer Khalil Greene, besides a contract that's less than double the league minimum (after he'd made $11 million the last two years)?  It's not playing time.  The brand new environment for the career National Leaguer was probably appealing, and if he does end up getting significant at-bats due to injury to someone else, he can hope for an offensive resurgence in a ballpark that has historically offered that possibility.  

It's not as obvious a selling point as the Rangers were able to put in front of Vladimir Guerrero, a career .394/.471/.705 hitter in Rangers Ballpark, where interestingly he's amassed more plate appearances than anywhere else other than his home parks in Montreal and Anaheim - and where he's done the most damage among all parks where he has at least 100 plate appearances.  (Was it just the stadium?  Or was it Rangers pitching?  Guerrero hit .398/.452/.628 against Texas in Angel Stadium, but an OPS-ier .394/.471/.705 in Arlington.  Site matters.)  But I'd be surprised if the DeRosa-Byrd-Matthews-Bradley evidence over the last handful of seasons wasn't something that factored into Greene's decision.

What was the biggest factor for Guerrero?  Probably a loss of leverage.  Even if this is the team he wanted to join (and we don't necessarily know that to be the case), he certainly didn't get the contract he wanted, in length or in dollars.  But, Guerrero's options were limited by virtue of his demise as an everyday defender, and, as one local beat reporter cleanly laid out on Thursday, of the 14 American League clubs, the only other ones not locked in at designated hitter were Detroit, Kansas City, Toronto, Baltimore, and maybe the White Sox.  None of the lavish spenders.

The Rangers waited on this one, pretty much knowing he was going to have to lower his sights more than they'd have to push in more chips.  We'll never know for sure how serious Texas was about Jermaine Dye, but my pet theory is that, while he might have been a fallback consideration had Guerrero chosen some other team, it didn't hurt the club's negotiation posture with Guerrero by maintaining the appearance that they had choices (Dye) just as Guerrero did.

Bobby Abreu is a year older than Guerrero.  He was, then, the same age last winter that Guerrero is now.  The Angels waited until last February, when Abreu had few choices left, and signed him for $5 million with incentives.  His year went well, of course, and he parlayed it two months ago into a new two-year, $19 million contract with a club option that could convert (via club option) to a three-year, $27 million deal.

Texas would be thrilled if Guerrero has the kind of resurgent year that makes him a 2/18 or 3/27 guy a year from now.  The odds aren't in favor of it, but after a run of Richard Hidalgo, Phil Nevin, Sammy Sosa, and Andruw Jones, I'm more than ready for an experiment with Guerrero in which he has a chance to revive his pinball numbers by playing half his games in his favorite arcade.

Another thought: Guerrero's physical profile being what it is (though it should be noted that his last disabled list stint before 2009's torn pectoral muscle and strained knee issues was in 2005), his addition may end up effectively paving the way for Justin Smoak to get his feet big league-wet with a two-week stint or two during the season.

Let's be realistic and assume Guerrero doesn't return to the form that, in every year but one between 2002 and 2007, made him a Silver Slugger, a top 10 hitter, a top 10 slugger, a top 10 base-reacher, a top 10 run producer, and a top 10 MVP finalist.  A year that fits that profile would be huge, but even something a little short of it would be quite welcome, and after 14 seasons in which his salary increased every single year, culminating with last year's $15 million contract, he's probably motivated to prove that the $5 million base he's playing for in 2010 will have been a league-wide mistake.

Check out the lineup that Texas figures to run out there most days:

1. Julio Borbon, CF
2. Michael Young, 3B
3. Josh Hamilton, LF
4. Vladimir Guerrero, DH
5. Ian Kinsler, 2B
6. Nelson Cruz, RF
7. Chris Davis, 1B
8. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C
9. Elvis Andrus, SS

Which third of that lineup doesn't at least have the potential to do as much damage as any in the league?

And couldn't you say that just about every slot, for various reasons (a full year, better health, mechanical fixes, a better lineup fit, a new player), could reasonably be expected to be more productive in 2010 than it was in 2009?

Greene's productivity demise has been less traditional and far less predictable than Guerrero's.  A reliable shortstop and standout hitter over his first five seasons with the Padres (.280/.335/.515 away from San Diego), he enjoyed a run of productivity that was routinely referenced in Texas as Drew Meyer (who played collegiately 130 miles away at South Carolina and was Grady Fuson's first-ever choice as Rangers scouting director at the number 10 slot, before Clemson's Greene went 13th overall to the Padres) failed to pan out.  Greene signed his big two-year deal after the 2007 season, struggled in 2008 (.213/.260/.339), a year that ended two months early when he broke his glove hand punching a dugout wall in frustration, and was traded to St. Louis after that season.    

It appeared that the change of scenery might have set the stage for a big rebound.  In spring training with the Cardinals last year, Greene hit .408/.436/.535 over 71 at-bats, leading the club in exhibition hits and walking more times (five) than he struck out (four).  But once the season got underway, his 2008 troubles resurfaced, both on and off the field.

Two months into the season, Greene spent three weeks on the disabled list with a "social anxiety disorder," admitting to having fought through diminished concentration and energy, an inability to relax and avoid overthinking, and what amounted to "an extreme version of what you might call 'butterflies.'"  When he returned to action he dealt with a left foot bruise and a right ankle injury his first few days back before returning to the DL 11 days after he'd come off of it, again for the emotional disorder that would end up shelving him for the entire second half.  He finished with a miserable .200/.272/.347 slash line.
 
(Interestingly, when Greene returned from his first DL stint with the Cardinals last year, he was moved to third base for the first time in the big leagues, after playing nothing but shortstop for seven seasons.  In his first start, he homered, doubled, and walked.  The next day, again at third base, he homered again.  The day after that?  Another home run.  But he got hurt in that third game, derailing his momentum.)

Though he didn't turn 30 until after the season, Greene's no longer the player he was as a young Padres shortstop - in 2008 and 2009 he reached base at a .265 clip, the lowest in baseball over that time, and his defensive range was said to have diminished as well - but Texas isn't paying for the old Khalil Greene.  The Rangers are buying low, and Greene is buying into the opportunity to change his scenery again and capitalize on it.  For what it's worth, Greene's former college coach, Tim Corbin, has been working with Greene this winter and is raving about how hard his ex-All-American ("the best third baseman I have seen in college baseball") has been getting after it, both in the cages and in the infield.

It may not happen for him here, or ever, and the Rangers can win in 2010 without Greene being a key factor.

But winning teams regularly succeed rolling the dice somewhere on the roster, as Texas is attempting to do with Greene and Guerrero, for example, and Rich Harden as well. 

The key to those signings is not only that the Rangers targeted three players with recent success who they believe can contribute to a winning club in 2010, but also that they presented opportunities that, for one reason or another, fit what the player, at the moment, was looking for. 

There was plenty of timing and opportunity involved, both in career terms and on the winter calendar, for Texas to get signatures done with these three veterans.  It takes two sides to make an acquisition happen when there's more than a bottle of Yoo-Hoo at stake.


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Twitter  @newbergreport
 

I'm working up a report on the signings of Vladimir Guerrero and Khalil Greene, but in the meantime the great Kevin Goldstein has just posted his Top 11 Rangers Prospects feature on the Baseball Prospectus website.  It's among BP's wealth of subscriber-only content that I'd encourage you to add to your plate, but I can share this much with you - Kevin's top 11 (which happen to be the same 11 players as mine, though not in the same order), although you'll have to check the website to get his provocative commentary:

Five-Star Prospects

1. Neftali Feliz, RHP
2. Martin Perez, LHP
3. Justin Smoak, 1B

Four-Star Prospects

4. Tanner Scheppers, RHP

Three-Star Prospects

5. Jurickson Profar, SS
6. Danny Gutierrez, RHP
7. Mitch Moreland, RF
8. Michael Main, RHP
9. Engel Beltre, CF
10. Wilmer Font, RHP
11. Robbie Ross, LHP

Four More:

12. Miguel Velasquez, OF
13. Kasey Kiker, LHP
14. Max Ramirez, C
15. Guillermo Moscoso, RHP

The Sleeper:

Shawn Blackwell, RHP
 

I hope you're a subscriber if for no other reason than to read what Goldstein wrote about Profar.


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One-year deal, a club option for a second year.  Apparently a $5 million base, with some reports of maybe another $500,000-600,000 in reachable appearance incentives.  The option evidently has a $1 million buyout attached to it, which would mean $6 million is guaranteed.
 
Like it.

Read the blog entry T.R. Sullivan posted overnight.  It's cryptic in places, turbo-cryptic in others, but it struck a nerve with me, and I think it's worth your time.

The reason I created the "Trot Coffey" emails a year and a half ago (around the 2008 trade deadline) was less to drive up mailing list numbers than to separate rumor from news.  I used to include all of it together, but with the advent and explosive growth of Twitter and MLB Trade Rumors and beat writers maintaining blogs (responsibly so in most cases), it's easier now to send messages out several times a day than to wait for the papers when the alarm clock sounds each morning.

Easier, and exponentially more dangerous. 

For many, the objective is, as it has always has been, to be right.

For others, the sole objective, substantiation be damned, is to be first.

I'll admit to that urge from time to time, but it's always been my policy not to break news (or, to be more fair to the discussion, to attempt to break news).  I have my opportunities.  Hey, here's an email from a fan who is buddies with a bigtime free agent who told him at the gym an hour ago that he's signing either with Texas or that other team!  There's one from a reporter in another market who is about to break news of a trade - here are the specifics! - but not until he gets confirmation from one of the teams.  And there's that text from a player who just found out he's getting The Call to the big leagues.

I could send those things out, but I choose not to.  There are reasons those things don't go public before they do - even if they're true, which they aren't always - and my purpose isn't to be the one whose name or website might somehow get attached to the story.  I usually won't be first, even if I always try to be prompt.

That's why, even in the Trot Coffey's, the rumors come from what I count on as established sources.  You can't always tell if the rumor is reliable - but you can try (successfully most of the time, you hope) to stick to the sources who generally are.

And you (well, I) put your (my) trust in the likelihood that, despite the allure of the social networking race, they did their homework, and that they ran down their normal traps before tweeting.

As T.R. wrote: "It's just a matter of knowing the right URL and how to get there.  There are certain boulevards that all play on, but make sure they arrive from multiple cross-streets."

Anyway, I have nothing (as of now) to report today.  Just wanted to remind you that the Trot Coffey's are there for a reason.  I used to crave getting my Sporting News in the mail as a kid, tearing through it to find the Peter Gammons column first because I knew it would be full of trade rumors that nobody else had.  Now we all get blasts all day long, and I do my best to pass along only those coming from dependable places.  The Trot Coffey's have been a popular feature, and I'll keep sending them, but they're sent out in a different format by design.

There's nothing wrong with Twitter or MLBTR - I'm a believer in both - as long as the underlying source is reliable. 

But even then, the Trot Coffey's - which I send to the mailing list but don't post on the website for real reasons - always end with that salt shaker capsized under its own weight.


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(c) Jamey Newberg
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Anyone else expect one of these local weathermen to break into a Deion end zone dance talking about this McFarland Signature junk?  

Speaking of football, I'm not sure if Lonnie Maclin is Jeremy Maclin's disclaimed biological father (they were both born in Missouri, 21 years apart), but at the moment I'd say Lonnie can hold his head up higher about his 13-at-bat big league career (with the Cardinals in September and October 1993) than Jeremy can after the Eagles' final snap on Sunday, when he 100 percent gave up on Donovan McNabb's pass, taking his eyes off the ball and turning them - not just peripherally - toward an approaching Ken Hamlin.  Sorry play.

Jimmy would have taken him off the playoff roster.

A final football note, and then some Rangers content:


 
                                          AP
Can't wait for tonight.

One local reporter suggests that of the right-handed bat alternatives that remain on the free agent market, Vladimir Guerrero and Xavier Nady make the most sense for Texas.  Agree.

Peter Gammons of MLB Network believes the Mets are the frontrunners to sign righthander Jon Garland, whom some have reported Texas to be squarely in the mix for.

Baseball Prospectus (January 11) and Baseball America (January 25) haven't yet revealed their Rangers prospect rankings, but John Sickels did so yesterday:

1. Neftali Feliz, RHP, Grade A
2. Justin Smoak, 1B, Grade A-
3. Martin Perez, LHP, Grade A- ("Could be a left-handed version of Feliz if all goes well")
4. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, Grade B+
5. Wilmer Font, RHP, Grade B
6. Michael Main, RHP, Grade B
7. Mitch Moreland, 1B-OF, Grade B-
8. Kasey Kiker, LHP, Grade B-
9. Robbie Ross, LHP, Grade B-
10. Danny Gutierrez, RHP, Grade C+
11. Engel Beltre, OF, Grade C+
12. Guillermo Moscoso, RHP, Grade C+
13. Max Ramirez, C, Grade C+
14. Miguel Velazquez, OF, Grade C+
15. Omar Poveda, RHP, Grade C+
16. Blake Beavan, RHP, Grade C+
17. Carlos Pimentel, RHP, Grade C+
18. Robbie Erlin, LHP, Grade C+
19. Tommy Mendonca, 3B, Grade C+
20. Vin DiFazio, C, Grade C+

OTHERS (Grade C): Richard Alvarez, RHP; Mike Bianucci, OF; Richard Bleier, LHP; Wilfredo Boscan, RHP; Andrew Doyle, RHP; Edwin Escobar, LHP; Craig Gentry, OF; Kennil Gomez, RHP; Michael Kirkman, LHP; Marcus Lemon, INF; Zach Phillips, LHP; Jurickson Profar, SS; Neil Ramirez, RHP; Luis Sardinas, SS; Ben Snyder, LHP; Pedro Strop, RHP; Tomas Telis, C; Matt Thompson, RHP; Braden Tullis, RHP; Joe Wieland, RHP

Asked to put together a starting lineup of the best prospects in baseball, BA's Jim Callis included no Rangers position players (though he singled Smoak out as one of three players he "couldn't find room for," as he cagily moved Dustin Ackley in from the outfield to first base), but Feliz was his closer and, though he didn't crack the rotation, Perez was identified as one of three starting pitchers who just missed the cut.

Callis also identified outfielder Ruben Mateo as number four on his All-Bust Team from the last decade.  (Another football note: Drew Henson was number seven.)  And in naming the biggest bust of the decade at each of the first 10 slots in the draft, Drew Meyer was Callis's pick for the worst number 10 pick.

You can find the "In Their Footsteps" article I wrote in April 2008, featuring new Bakersfield manager Bill Haselman, my favorite Rangers backup catcher, by clicking here. 

Frisco righthander Blake Beavan will appear with Cowboys defensive lineman Marcus Spears and wide receiver Jesse Holley from 7-8 p.m. on January 12 at the Coppell location of Mooyah Burgers & Fries (104 N. Denton Tap Road) to support the great Allen Cordrey's Cards2Care gift card drive.  Come on out and get your Bound Edition signed.

The Joliet Jackhammers of the independent Northern League signed first baseman Freddie Thon.

Pittsburgh named Anthony Telford minor league personal development coordinator.  Colorado named Joey Eischen pitching coach for Low A Tri-City.  Milwaukee named Bob Miscik manager at High A Brevard County, after he managed AA Huntsville last year, and hired Ross Sapp to serve as a major league scout.  Boston promoted Mike Cather to major league advance scout.

One of the cool things about having a book deal for the first time is that the Bound Edition is now available on Amazon and Borders.com, and should be soon on BN.com.  If you feel like it, you can go to the Amazon link and post a Customer Review. 


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(c) Jamey Newberg
http://www.newbergreport.com
Twitter  @newbergreport
 

So of the three principals at Baseball America who collaborate on the publication's ranking of the game's top 100 prospects, two (editor-in-chief John Manuel and executive editor Jim Callis) have now said in the last month that they have the Rangers repeating as the number one farm system in baseball, and each has Neftali Feliz, Justin Smoak, and Martin Perez among baseball's top 25 prospects.

But let's shift to something more immediate.

Texas finished second in the West in 2009 for the second straight year, winning 87 games despite 14 losses over its final 21 games.  Can 2010 be better?

Is it reasonable to expect a lot more out of Josh Hamilton?  He doesn't need to repeat 2008 (.304/.371/.530), even though he hinted at a return to form over his final 32 games in 2009 (.346/.391/.512).  It's the 57 games that preceded that stretch (.220/.269/.373) that Hamilton can't give this club in 2010.  

Two years ago, new Rangers hitting coach Clint Hurdle said this:

"One of the best things I was ever told as a young player that I never understood until I was an older player: There's two kinds of people that play this game, those that are humble and those that are about to be.  At the age of 18 I laughed, yeah, that's cute.  Well, by the age of 38 I was wearing it."

And this:

"Early in my career, I was in a hurry.  I've had to learn patience through challenging times.  That's been good.  It's proved to be an asset, especially in this profession."

Hamilton is Hurdle's most important project.  A return to health is obviously important.  So is rhythm at the plate.  And confidence.  Hamilton needs to have all those things come back together.  If he can figure out (as he did in August) how to give his teammates a reliable plate presence once again - not necessarily MVP-level production but just a consistent threat in the middle of the order - it will make a huge difference.  Imagine what this 87-team club would have done with any consistency from Hamilton last year.

Ian Kinsler's first 35 games in 2009: .318/.380/.622.

His remaining 109 games: .230/.308/.440.

We all know the 27-year-old should be a lot closer to the first guy in 2010 than the second guy.  Is there any reason to believe he can't at least be the .319/.375/.517 hitter he was in 2008 again?

We can expect more production from first base in 2010.  There won't be a repeat of last year's .226/.272/.411.  One way or the other, there just won't.

Rangers catchers hit .234/.286/.379 in 2009.  Fair to expect better?

Can Elvis Andrus avoid a sophomore setback, and settle in as the hitter he was in the second half (.280/.342/.395, after a .253/.315/.350 first half)?

Julio Borbon hit .320/.386/.467 in his first 23 big league games, .305/.367/.366 over his remaining 23.  Nothing wrong with the second set of numbers.  Even if he doesn't replicate either slash line, just having a full year of Borbon atop the order, batting after Andrus and allowing Kinsler to move into a run-producing slot permanently, should help the offense.

A full year of Feliz is an upgrade, no matter how he's used.

Tommy Hunter and Derek Holland went a combined 15-18, 5.19 in 40 starts.  I'd bet against those numbers getting worse.  

Frankie Francisco and C.J. Wilson had more great stretches in 2009 than the not-so-great runs.  Aren't they about what they are?  Francisco, for what it's worth, is essentially in a contract year, as he'll be a free agent next winter for the first time.  Wilson is a year behind him in service time.

Is it overly optimistic to hope for repeats of the spike years that Scott Feldman (17-8, 4.08), Michael Young (.322/.374/.518), and Darren O'Day (1.94 ERA, .188/.265/.260 slash, 3.18 K/BB) had?

Losing Marlon Byrd isn't a positive.  Defensively, Borbon's improvement in center field will be important.  As for Byrd's bat (.283/.329/.479, including .282/.336/.538 at home), let's see what the club does about adding another right-handed run producer.

Put it this way: Moving Kevin Millwood for two bullpen candidates couldn't be counted a positive as far as 2010 is concerned.  

Until Texas signed Rich Harden two days later.

Give me Darren Oliver over Eddie Guardado.

And give me an impact addition or two in July, which, as long as the team is hanging around in playoff contention, I think we can expect this season more than we could last year.

Another thing we can expect, at least on paper, is that the Angels (having lost John Lackey, Chone Figgins, Oliver, and eventually Vlad Guerrrero, and having added Hideki Matsui and Fernando Rodney) aren't going to be as strong in 2010 as their 97-win team was in 2009.

If the Rangers do repeat atop Baseball America's organizational talent rankings, they'll be just the third franchise to do so in the last 20 years (Atlanta 1994-95, Tampa Bay 2007-08).  There are plenty of players in the Texas system who will contribute eventually to winning clubs.  

But think about last year's 87-win Rangers club, about the Angels' winter, about having players like Feliz and Borbon and Hunter for a full season, about the odds of getting more out of Hamilton and Kinsler, and about Harden.

And about this July.

Could 2010 be The Year, after all?

To kick our 2010 off, a Newberg Report New Year's Day custom: My top 72 Rangers prospects, as laid out (with detailed commentary on each player) in the 2010 Bound Edition - which was released less than three weeks ago but has already had more copies sold than any of the previous 10 books, thanks to you all:

1.    Neftali Feliz, RHP
2.    Justin Smoak, 1B
3.    Martin Perez, LHP
4.    Tanner Scheppers, RHP
5.    Wilmer Font, RHP
6.    Jurickson Profar, SS
7.    Michael Main, RHP
8.    Danny Gutierrez, RHP
9.    Robbie Ross, LHP
10.    Engel Beltre, OF
11.    Mitch Moreland, 1B-OF
12.    Blake Beavan, RHP
13.    Pedro Strop, RHP
14.    Kasey Kiker, LHP
15.    Michael Kirkman, LHP
16.    Wilfredo Boscan, RHP
17.    Max Ramirez, C
18.    Joe Wieland, RHP
19.    Guillermo Moscoso, RHP
20.    Tomas Telis, C
21.    Tommy Mendonca, 3B
22.    Luis Sardinas, SS
23.    Omar Poveda, RHP
24.    Eric Hurley, RHP
25.    Miguel Velazquez, OF
26.    Carlos Pimentel, RHP
27.    Leury Garcia, SS
28.    Mike Bianucci, OF
29.    Neil Ramirez, RHP
30.    Kennil Gomez, RHP
31.    Craig Gentry, OF
32.    Zach Phillips, LHP
33.    Corey Young, LHP
34.    Jake Brigham, RHP
35.    Braden Tullis, RHP
36.    Richard Bleier, LHP
37.    Richard Alvarez, RHP
38.    Evan Reed, RHP
39.    Alexi Ogando, RHP
40.    Miguel De Los Santos, LHP
41.    Fabio Castillo, RHP
42.    Tim Murphy, LHP
43.    Edwin Escobar, LHP
44.    Matt Thompson, RHP
45.    Marcus Lemon, 2B
46.    Chad Tracy, 1B
47.    Leonel De Los Santos, C
48.    Robbie Erlin, LHP
49.    Geuris Grullon, LHP
50.    Johnny Whittleman, 3B
51.    Greg Golson, OF
52.    Jose Felix, C
53.    David Paisano, OF
54.    Shawn Blackwell, RHP
55.    Cristian Santana, OF
56.    Carlos Melo, RHP
57.    Beau Jones, LHP
58.    Tanner Roark, RHP
59.    Chad Bell, LHP
60.    Randol Rojas, RHP
61.    Guillermo Pimentel, OF
62.    Yoon-Hee Nam, LHP
63.    Joseph Ortiz, LHP
64.    Vin DiFazio, C
65.    Clark Murphy, 1B
66.    Paul Strong, LHP
67.    Brennan Garr, RHP
68.    David Perez, RHP
69.    Jose Monegro, RHP
70.    Andrew Doyle, RHP
71.    Nick McBride, RHP
72.    Ryan Tatusko, RHP
 

Best wishes for a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year to you, your family, and your baseball team.


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(c) Jamey Newberg
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Twitter  @newbergreport