THE NEWBERG REPORT -- June 6, 2008: Day One of the Draft.

This is a tale about draft philosophy.

The right kind, and the wrong kind.

And how advocates of the wrong kind can make Draft Day a significantly better one for everyone else.

When the Rangers were fortunate enough to land Mark Teixeira with the fifth pick in the 2001 draft, it wasn't necessarily because the teams ahead of them screwed up.  Whether Teixeira's contract demands (he would eventually sign a four-year, $9.5 million major league deal) factored into Minnesota's choice of Joe Mauer (first) or Philadelphia's choice of Gavin Floyd (fourth) doesn't matter, because those clubs drafted well.  The Cubs selected Mark Prior (second), simply preferring him over Teixeira.  Tampa Bay tabbed Dewon Brazelton (third) but obviously that club was never going to meet Teixeira's monetary demands.

There are no such excuses for Justin Smoak -- a switch-hitting, power/defense first baseman drawing comparisons to Teixeira, for one -- falling to Texas at pick number 11 yesterday.  It had absolutely nothing to do with signability.

Players slide on Draft Day.  It happens.  Chances were decent that someone in the top 10 was going to fall a few spots, especially this year, when the first round was as unsettled as any in memory.  It turns out Smoak was that guy.

San Francisco sat at number five, where it was predicted almost across the board that Smoak would land, and decided to take Florida State catcher Buster Posey, a player whose rumored demands led some to believe he might fall to a large-market team late in the round.  Florida, drafting sixth, then took California high school catcher Kyle Skipworth.

Houston, sitting at number 10, did not stray from its apparent decision to draft for need.

The Astros wanted Skipworth.  The final Baseball America mock predicted they'd get him.  But the Marlins had foiled that plan at number six.

Cincinnati took Miami first baseman Yonder Alonso at seven.  Camps are split on whether he or Smoak is the better prospect.  Defensible pick.

At eight, the White Sox chose Georgia shortstop Gordon Beckham, the player they apparently wanted all along.  Fine.

Washington selected Missouri righthander Aaron Crow, maybe the top power pitcher among college draft-eligibles, at number nine.  Certainly understandable.  If the Rangers had gone for pitching, he was the guy I was hoping for.

Smoak, who was pegged to go third or fourth or fifth in most mocks I saw, and eighth in a couple, was sitting there as the Astros went on the clock.  He had to be the consensus "best player available" at that point, but if there were any teams or industry experts who had Smoak elsewhere on their board based on pure talent and upside -- even if signability were factored in -- I can guarantee you that it wasn't because of Stanford catcher Jason Castro.

The Astros didn't have the chance to take Skipworth, but that didn't stop them from making sure they filled their "need" by adding a catcher (24-year-old rookie J.R. Towles, hitting a woeful .145, was optioned to AAA last night, and the club's 2006 number one pick, 20-year-old catcher Max Sapp, remains in Low A and still isn't hitting).  Houston took Castro, thought by most to figure in somewhere in the last third of the first round, certainly in the last half.  The great Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote, yesterday morning: "Stanford's Jason Castro is the third best catcher in the draft, and the gap between him and whoever teams think is the fourth best on the board is wider than the Grand Canyon."

Thank goodness, from the Rangers' standpoint, that Houston decided it absolutely had to grab a catcher.

This week alone, various projections had Texas using its first pick on Crow or Eric Hosmer or Christian Friedrich or Andrew Cashner or Ethan Martin or Aaron Hicks or Gerrit Cole or Shooter Hunt.  Not one had Smoak available at number 11.

Houston went for need, Texas (not worrying that adding a first baseman could fog up the picture for either Chris Davis or Max Ramirez) took the best player available, and I came away with this thought: As much as I was looking forward to drafting immediately before Oakland all day, I found myself just as thankful to be drafting right after Houston.

The Rangers took six players on Thursday and will take another 44 today if they use every pick available to them.  I knew nothing about five of yesterday's picks until after Texas called their names, and it's doubtful I'll know much about today's selections until doing a little research, but the fact that Justin Smoak's name tops our list makes the 2008 draft feel like a win already. 

As much confidence as I have in Ron Hopkins and his team of scouts and crosscheckers, I'm sure there will be a number of others to emerge from this draft class to help this organization win at the big league level, one way or another, but things sure got off to a sensational start early yesterday afternoon, as it's hard to dispute that Texas stayed true to its rational plan and took what we can probably all agree was not only the best player available, but in fact the best player available to the team picking immediately ahead of the Rangers.

On to the picks:

1 (11th overall). JUSTIN SMOAK, 1B, Univ. of South Carolina

(scout: Jim Cuthbert)

(last year's first-round picks: Blake Beavan and Michael Main; past Rangers first-round picks include John Danks, Thomas Diamond, Kasey Kiker, John Mayberry Jr., Mark Teixeira, Rick Helling, Carlos Pena; best number 11 pick in last 25 years: Shawn Estes [Mariners, 1991])

In the 16th round of the 2005 draft, Oakland used the 491st overall pick to select Smoak out of a South Carolina high school.  Four picks later, Minnesota chose Yonder Alonso out of a Florida high school.  There were plenty of people who thought the two should have gone in that same order yesterday.  In fact, Goldstein wrote that Cincinnati, which drafted Alonso at number seven, might have been the only team that did have Alonso higher than Smoak on its board.

Some scouts suggest that Smoak, a Gold Glove-quality defender at first base (something Alonso clearly is not) with huge power potential and an ability to run the bases well despite below-average speed, could be a switch-hitting version of Adrian Gonzalez or Justin Morneau.

Or that he could be Chipper Jones.

Or Mark Teixeira.

Need more?

Baseball America ranked Smoak as the number two power hitter among college players in this draft, behind Vanderbilt third baseman Pedro Alvarez, who went number two to Pittsburgh.

ESPN's Keith Law had Smoak as the number three player on his entire board.  When the Rangers made the choice, Law called it the best pick in the draft.  A day later, he gives Texas props for making the second-best pick of the round, next to Colorado's selection of Friedrich at number 25.

Smoak has an easy swing with plus bat speed and strong wrists that generate prodigious power from both sides of the plate.  Terrific pitch recognition, hits to all fields.  Good hands and feet defensively, and a solid arm. 

Could easily add good weight to his 6'4", 215 frame. 

Started every game in his three years at South Carolina, earning Freshman All-America honors when he hit .303 with 17 home runs and 63 RBI in 2006 (setting freshman school records for home runs and RBI), and third team All-America recognition when he hit .315 with 22 home runs and 72 RBI in 2007.  This year, as a junior, he hit .383/.505/.757 with 23 home runs, 19 doubles, and 72 RBI in 63 games (235 at-bats), drawing more than twice as many walks (57) as strikeouts (28).  Collegiate Baseball made him a first-team All-America selection, and he was a semi-finalist for the Dick Howser Trophy, awarded to the college player of the year.

In his three-year Gamecocks career, Smoak set school records for home runs (62), total bases (485), RBI (207), and walks (151), and is among the greatest home run hitters in SEC history.  Former Rangers first baseman Rafael Palmeiro is fourth in the Conference with 67 career homers.  Former Rangers first baseman Will Clark is sixth with 61.  Future Rangers first baseman Smoak is fifth with his 62.

The three hitters ahead of that trio, each of whom played three years of college ball, compiled their totals in four years.

Smoak was the Most Outstanding Player in the NCAA Regionals each of the last two seasons.

Wood bat concerns?  In the summer after his freshman year, Smoak went to the Cape Cod League and was named its MVP (and top prospect), leading the league with 11 home runs (in 154 at-bats over 39 games) and a .565 slugging percentage as he hit .286 and added 10 doubles.  (On the other hand, playing for Team USA after his sophomore season, he struggled, hitting just .223 with three homers and 19 RBI in 121 at-bats.)

When the Athletics drafted Smoak out of Stratford High in Goose Creek, South Carolina (where he was a year behind Matt Wieters) in 2005, he projected to go well before the 16th round but was thought to be a near-impossible sign due to his commitment to South Carolina.  Yet, if the reports are true, negotiations evidently stalled with Oakland at $950,000 and Smoak demanding $1 million. 

Wow.

Think Billy Beane was thinking about that $50,000 gap when Texas popped Smoak yesterday with Oakland on deck?

Smoak's advisors are Dustin and Hunter Bledsoe, who also advised him in his high school negotiations with Oakland.  Hunter, a 32-year-old former SEC Player of the Year as a Vanderbilt first baseman, spent four seasons in the Dodgers' system before splitting 2003 between the Yankees, Royals, and the independent leagues. 

Smoak's season is over (South Carolina was eliminated on Sunday) but don't count on him signing quickly.  He'll probably come to terms, but as a player who was widely projected to go several spots earlier, chances are that negotiations could take a while.  Slot calls for about $2 million.  It will probably take more to get a deal done, and Texas and Smoak will have until August 15 to do so (or else Smoak returns to school for his senior year and the Rangers will get an extra first-round pick next year as compensation).  But - worst case scenario - even if negotiations were to take so long that the first time Smoak suits up is in Surprise at Fall Instructs, this is a player who nonetheless could arrive by 2010.

Will he demand a major league contract (which means a 40-man roster spot)?  Don't know.  That's fairly significant, especially given the current crowd on the roster and the Rule 5-related decisions facing this club the next two winters.

Does the Smoak pick mean that Davis could become a designated hitter candidate rather than this club's next first baseman?  (Doubt he moves back to third, where I bet Michael Young moves next season and where Johnny Whittleman continues to develop.)  And what would that mean for Ramirez, who would then be blocked at catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Taylor Teagarden), first base (Smoak), and DH (Davis)? 

Doesn't matter.  If you're in a position to trade Saltalamacchia or Teagarden or Davis or Ramirez or Smoak without creating a hole developmentally, that's one heck of a good problem to have.  That's why you take the best player available.

A final comment from Goldstein, during an in-draft chat session: "Congrats Rangers fans, you just found your replacement for Mark Teixeira.  Just a crazy, crazy steal.  The Rangers could have picked fourth or fifth and not done better."

 

2 (57). ROBBIE ROSS, LHP, Lexington Christian Academy (Ky.)

(scout: John Poloni)

(last year: Matt West; previously: Johnny Whittleman, K.C. Herren, Vincent Sinisi, Nick Regilio, Jason Bourgeois, Jason Grabowsk; best number 57 pick in last 25 years: Jon Lester [Red Sox, 2002])

For all the depth that the Rangers are accumulating in pitching prospects on the farm, the vast majority are righthanders.  All things equal, you'd rather have a lefthander in Rangers Ballpark, given the jet stream to right center, and Texas took three southpaws among its six picks on Thursday.  Ross was the first, and might be the most challenging to sign.

Ross is an athletic 5'11", 185, somewhere between Kasey Kiker and John Danks in stature and just as competitive.  Featuring a fastball that sits at 90-92 mph with life and touches 94, he pounds the strike zone (just six walks in 51 innings as he went 5-2, 1.51 with 75 strikeouts), mixing in a solid breaking ball and change with a good feel for pitching.  He also hit .473 as a first baseman, swatting 13 doubles in 32 games and driving in 22 runs.  There's a lot about that profile that might remind you of Danks (whose 18-year-old curve Ross's slider attracts the same sort of praise as).  Or maybe a left-handed version of Michael Main, a few ticks down on the radar gun.

Ross, who turns 19 later this month, is the reigning Gatorade Kentucky Baseball Player of the Year.  He has committed to the University of Kentucky, and the Rangers will likely have to go over the nearly $600,000 slot to keep him from honoring it.  He's represented by Dustin and Hunter Bledsoe, just as Smoak is.

Baseball America ranked Ross as the number 43 prospect in this draft, and the signability issue is probably the reason he fell to pick number 57.  According to the Lexington Herald-Leader, Ross was hoping to be chosen by the Yankees or Boston.  People usually aren't fans of both teams, which may suggest that his fondness for those two might have more to do with a perceived ability to pay.  

According to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, Ross is said to be seeking something in the neighborhood of $1.5 million, which is mid-first-round money (and north of what Texas paid Blake Beavan [$1.4975 million] and Main [$1.2375 million] last summer . . . and also what fourth-rounder Marcus Lemon said he needed to forgo his UT commitment in 2006 before settling on $1 million).  Should the Rangers fail to get a deal done with Ross, they would get a compensation pick immediately after the 11^th spot in the second round of the 2009 draft.

But the Rangers don't go into this unaware of Ross's demands.  Have faith in this getting done.

 

3 (89). TIM MURPHY, LHP, UCLA

(scout: Todd Guggiana)

(last year: Evan Reed; previously: Hank Blalock, Taylor Teagarden, Michael Schlact, Chad Tracy, Barry Zito, Ryan Dempster, John Hudgins; best number 89 pick in last 25 years: Justin Morneau [Twins, 1999], Chris Young [Pirates, 2000])

Murphy, the second lefthander in the Rangers' draft haul, differs from Ross in that Murphy is a college pitcher, complements an average fastball (with arm-side sink and run) with a devastating breaking ball, and gets hitters out with an advanced ability to change speeds.  He's more of a pitchability type than Ross, though he's had issues walking batters.  In 102.1 innings this year, Murphy has walked 46 hitters (though he also punched 111 out and permitted only 83 hits).  His workload and strikeout total led the Pac-10 Conference.

What Ross and Murphy share, according to Jon Daniels, is standout competitiveness on the mound.  Murphy challenges hitters with his four-seam fastball and 11-5 curve, and showed an ability to get out of trouble that could bode well for a future as a reliever if he doesn't develop adequately as a starter.

Murphy was a quarterback in high school, drafted in the 11th round in 2005 by the Angels as an outfielder.  As a freshman at UCLA, he played center field but didn't pitch, not taking the mound until his sophomore and junior years.  He has a 10-10, 4.34 records in 27 Bruins starts and 10 relief appearances. 

Early in the 2008 season, Murphy was projected to go higher than the third round, but he ran into command issues late in the season that reportedly impacted his draft position.  He was Baseball America's number 63 draft prospect, but Texas was able to get him at number 89.

 

4 (123). JOE WIELAND, RHP, Bishop Manogue High School (Nev.)

(scout: Butch Metzger)

(last year: Garrett Nash [unsigned]; previously: Brandon Boggs, Wes Littleton, Marcus Lemon, Kevin Mench, Laynce Nix, Ryan Glynn; best number 123 pick in last 25 years: Steve Sparks [Brewers, 1987])

The lone righthander in the Rangers' Day One crop, Wieland is also the most projectable of the four pitchers Texas chose.  A lanky, athletic 6'3", 175, the Nevada High School Player of the Year has room to grow, and the low-90s readings on the gun (with sink and arm-side run) may not be where his velocity caps out. 

Wieland went 7-2, 2.04 with 115 strikeouts and 15 walks in 72 innings this year, showing uncanny command of three pitches while hitting .556 with 12 home runs and a state-record 76 RBI (that, according to one source, actually led the nation).

Ranked by Baseball America as the number 93 draft prospect in the country, Wieland evoked one comparison to Mark Prior in terms of his exquisite command of a power arsenal and advanced feel for the craft.

Wieland has committed to San Diego State, which has offered him the chance to pitch and hit.  Texas failed to sign last year's fourth-round pick, Utah high school outfielder Garrett Nash, but as the club took seven players in rounds one through three in 2007 and paid some of them above slot, it was a different situation.  Chances should be better that the Rangers get a deal done with Wieland.

 

5 (153). CLARK MURPHY, OF, Fallbrook HS (Calif.)

(scout: Steve Flores)

(last year: John Gast [unsigned]; previously: C.J. Wilson, Chris Davis, Michael Kirkman, Warren Morris, Mike Nickeas, Matt Lorenzo, Ryan Dittfurth; best number 153 pick in last 25 years: Ryan Drese [Indians, 1998], Mark Lowe [Mariners, 2004])

Murphy was the first player Texas chose yesterday ahead of where Baseball America had him slotted.  The publication ranked the 18-year-old as the draft's number 191 prospect.

A big athlete (6'3", 200) who played outfield and first base in high school and has prompted comparisons to Ryan Klesko, Murphy hit .470 with 12 home runs, 25 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in just 78 at-bats this season.  Scouts, however, expected more in 2008 than what they saw out of Murphy, who dropped jaws with a power show he put on with the wood bat at a June 2007 showcase event.  The left-handed hitter/thrower injured a quad muscle and reportedly struggled a bit in fall and winter showcases.

There are thoughts that Murphy's swing might need to be rebuilt, but the raw skills are such that if he does find some consistency with his mechanics, the upside could be substantial.

Think about this: Avowed proponents of strength up the middle, the two hitters that Texas took among their six Day One selections both play on corners.  More evidence of a franchise staying true to the best player available approach, rather than typecasting on Draft Day.

Murphy has committed to UCLA as a fallback should he not sign.

Louisville third baseman Chris Dominguez, the Rangers' 17th-round pick in 2005, was Colorado's fifth-round selection yesterday.

 

6 (183). RICHARD BLEIER, LHP, Florida Gulf Coast Univ.

(scout: Juan Alvarez)

(last year: Bobby Wilkins; previously: German Duran, Jake Brigham, Billy Susdorf, John Connally Barnett, Adam Bourassa, Aaron Harang, Danny Kolb; best number 183 pick in last 25 years: James Mouton [Astros, 1991])

The Atlantic Sun Conference Pitcher of the Year, Bleier went 7-1, 2.09 with 76 strikeouts and 17 walks in 90.1 innings for Florida Gulf Coast in 2008, limiting opposing batters to a .232 average.  He works at 87-91 mph, pounding the strike zone with a four-pitch assortment, which sounds a lot like former Angels/Rangers/Marlins reliever Juan Alvarez, the Rangers area scout who recommended yesterday's selection.

Interestingly, Bleier worked out for a number of teams leading up to the draft but says he hadn't had any contact whatsoever with the Rangers, who made the lefthander their final Day One pick.

An area scout for the Reds told a Southwest Florida reporter that Bleier gets better late in games, losing a little velocity but gaining sink in the process.

Bleier says his career aspiration has been to be a pro baseball player or a lawyer.  Respect.

Baseball America did not list Bleier among its top 200 draft prospects but did rank him as the number 21 prospect in the hotbed state of Florida.

A line that I confer on Josh Lewin and promise never to use in a Newberg Report: Where there's Smoak, there's Bleier.

Milwaukee used its sixth-round pick on Texas A&M shortstop Jose Duran, the younger brother of Rangers infielder/outfielder German Duran.  The sixth round, and Day One, ended with Longhorns outfielder Jordan Danks undrafted.

 

Make sure to stop by Eleanor Czajka's unparalleled Rangers Draft Page at http://www.dickiethon.com/eczajka/draft_2008.htm, where she has compiled scouting reports, scouting video, school bios, and player photos for each Rangers pick.  Yesterday's six picks are already up, and she'll put new pages up as today's Best Players Available are singled out and chosen by the Rangers.

You can read more from Jamey Newberg at www.NewbergReport.com.