When Texas makes a season-defining trade, or calls up its top prospect to make his big league debut, the update I send out announcing the move generates dozens of emails, sometimes hundreds, often with wildly divergent opinions but the same level of energy and intensity.  Yesterday’s midday announcement of John Rhadigan triggered that sort of response, in both volume and vigor.  And many asked me to weigh in on the hire.

First things first: I’m a radio guy.  Tom Grieve knows it, Josh Lewin knew it.  For various reasons I do catch hundreds of innings of the television call each season.  But the TV sound is down in my home for probably more than 1,000 innings each year.  It’s partly because of Eric Nadel, of course, but not only because of Nadel.  I’m a radio guy in baseball and I am in football as well.  Always have been, always will be.  

But I do realize that those hundreds of innings of TV play-by-play I might tune into each season is as many as, if not more than, some segments of the fan base might catch of Rangers baseball all year – fans that the organization would like to convert into thousand-inning consumers.  And, of course, I’m intensely interested in seeing the Rangers striving to make themselves better everywhere they can and at every opportunity: in the rotation, in center field, in scouting, in sponsorships, in the television booth.  Even where I might not be directly affected, I want this organization to be great.

I have no idea how John Rhadigan will sound calling Rangers games.  This I do know: He’s a pro’s pro.  He knows this team and this franchise.  He’s an extraordinarily good guy, and you’ll find nobody who disagrees about that.  He’s been proficient at worst, tremendous at best, at everything he’s done in this market, and he’s done a lot.

But calling an eighth-inning 6-4-3 to end an Angels threat and preserve a one-run Rangers lead with the Texas magic number down into the teens?  Or reacting (and not overreacting) to what turns out to be a routine, bases-empty Adrian Beltre fly to left center in mid-May?  Don’t have an opinion on that.  Feels sort of wrong to fire one up just yet.

A year ago at this time, what would you have thought if you were told Texas would end up sending Chris Davis back to AAA after just 48 at-bats, would trade Justin Smoak during the season, and would give first base to Mitch Moreland, a recent 17th-round pick who just a year earlier had been told by the organization that it was up to him whether he wanted to convert wholesale to the mound, or remain a position player?  Who, in 2010, would be strictly an Oklahoma City outfielder until mid-July, two weeks before he’d be called up to settle in on a first-place Major League team as its starting first baseman?

Last March, Randy Galloway said he asked five Rangers officials who the club’s 2012 first baseman would be: Davis or Smoak?  The leading answer, said Galloway, was Moreland.  

I’d say most of us who heard that, no matter how insane our level of interest in this team was, were pretty skeptical.

Are you as big a fan of Phillies play-by-play man Scott Franzke as I am?  Probably not, but if you are, how did you feel about his potential in that role when he was handling Rangers radio pregame and postgame show duties, just a few years ago?

Maybe John Rhadigan is Mitch Moreland.  Maybe he’s Scott Franzke.  Maybe not – but maybe.

Is it fair to say we just don’t know yet?

One thing we do know is that the scrutiny will be passionate, as it would be if some well-established, nationally renowned play-by-play man were brought in and loyal Rangers fans expected him to be fluent in how special a defender Davis is, how Alexi Ogando was acquired, the primary reason Craig Gentry didn’t make the playoff roster, and the fact that Moreland closed games for Mississippi State in the 2007 College World Series, and to fold all of that information into the broadcast without acting as if it’s the same level of revelation to the viewer as it is to him.  It’s one thing for Jon Miller to relate Josh Hamilton’s unique story when he knows he has viewers in New York and San Francisco, or Pittsburgh and Baltimore, or Denver and Cheyenne, but it would be a problem if a new announcer, with rows of trophies on his mantel, came in here and lacked not only a grasp of Rangers history and talking points, but also a sense of what the viewing audience’s grasp of those things is.

I don’t blame any of you for caring, no matter where you fall on this hire – it fires me up that the interest level is this intense – but for those of you who were disappointed with the announcement, and for those of you who couldn’t be happier, wouldn’t it make sense to wait at least until March 12, when John Rhadigan first relates the starting spring training lineup that Ron Washington is sending out there to take on the White Sox, to really judge it?  
 
I can assure you right now that I’ll prefer the Rangers’ TV play-by-play man to Chicago’s that Saturday afternoon, but as for any more defined opinion than that, other than to tell you there are few guys in the local media who are more likable than John, it’s going to be many months before I’m prepared to, or interested in, giving one.
 

Texas avoided arbitration on Tuesday by agreeing to terms with C.J. Wilson ($7 million) and Nelson Cruz ($3.65 million) on one-year deals, leaving Josh Hamilton, Frank Francisco, and Darren O’Day as the club’s remaining arbitration cases (the club settled with David Murphy [$2.4 million] a couple weeks ago, and Mark Lowe [$1.2 million] in November).

The question is less whether Texas will settle with Hamilton ($12 million player proposal vs. $8.7 million club proposal), Francisco ($4.875 million vs. $3.5 million), and O’Day ($1.4 million vs. $1.05 million) than whether the club could work out multi-year contracts with any of them.

The Rangers have made a routine practice of approaching core players (and some who might be considered non-core, but dependable pieces of the puzzle) to see if there’s mutual interest in an extension that would buy out the player’s remaining arbitration years and a year or two of free agency.  Texas did it in recent years with Michael Young, Ian Kinsler, Francisco Cordero, Hank Blalock, Joaquin Benoit, Scott Feldman, and Ron Mahay.

There was talk in the press yesterday that it wouldn’t be out of the question for the club to approach Elvis Andrus, who isn’t arbitration-eligible yet but will have the first of his three arbitration winters arrive a year from now, about the idea of a long-term deal that would knock the shortstop’s arbitration years out, and maybe more.  Such a deal would give the club some cost certainty (perhaps even at a perceived discount, Scott Boras notwithstanding) and the player the financial security that would set him and his family up for life, with the likelihood of plenty of prime earning years beyond the deal.

Young and Kinsler were in the same service time class as Andrus when they signed their initial long-term deals here, as is Carlos Gonzalez (like Andrus a Boras client), who signed a seven-year, $80 million deal with the Rockies last week.

How likely is it that Texas could announce a multi-year agreement with Andrus, or any of its arbitration-eligible players?  It’s a question worth looking at, not only as far as Hamilton, Francisco, and O’Day are concerned, but Wilson and Cruz and Murphy as well.  The Rangers signed Young in March 2004 before announcing a four-year contract that April.  They settled with the first-time arbitration-eligible Feldman last January before agreeing to an extension through 2012 (with a club option for 2013) five weeks later.  Settling on the current year doesn’t eliminate the possibility of an extension shortly thereafter.

To me, the idea of a multi-year deal with Wilson, right now, might be the least likely of any of them.  Theoretically, it’s the most urgent case of the six, as he and Francisco are the only two who will be eligible to test free agency next winter.  But you can imagine that in Wilson’s case, both sides may be reluctant to commit long-term.  The Rangers might want to see the one-year starter deliver another year of results and health before binding themselves at anything close to market level for multiple years – he’d cost far more than Feldman, who agreed last year to a guarantee of less than $14 million for three seasons – and Wilson will probably want to take advantage of the fact that he sits near the top of an unusually thin class of starting pitchers eligible for free agency next winter.  Someone else will emerge during the 2011 season, but at the moment it’s Wilson, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson, and Joel Pineiro who stand out (assuming St. Louis and Philadelphia exercise 2012 options on Chris Carpenter and Roy Oswalt).  There’s no Cliff Lee in the bunch.

Wilson strikes me, and probably you, as someone who will want to see how much (and for how long) the Yankees and Red Sox and Angels and Dodgers might be willing to pay him a year from now to pitch in a big market, which is not to say Texas wouldn’t ultimately be his first choice once his market is defined.  I just can’t imagine he’s making financial security a priority right now.

Cruz, for different reasons, is an unusual case.  People talk about Hamilton’s relatively advanced age – he’ll be 31 when he’s first eligible for free agency (after the 2012 season) – but Cruz will be 33 when he can test the market for the first time (after 2013).  For that reason, he’s probably motivated now to see if there’s common ground with the team for long-term talks (this season’s $3.65 million contract will be his first, due to service time, for more than $500,000), but how long will Texas be willing to commit for a player who’s already 30?  I don’t think anyone expects Cruz, a classic late bloomer, to start to recede in 2011 but, really, how many years do you go?

Which brings us to Hamilton.  It’s sort of bizarre to categorize him as a year-to-year proposition (from a team perspective), but for all his positives, which stack up against anyone’s in baseball, there’s also his track record in terms of his ability to bounce back from injury (or illness), the risk of another 2009-level regression, and, frankly, the off-field issues that everyone hopes are fully past tense.  I can easily imagine Texas floating a three-year proposal, maybe four, that would delay Hamilton’s free agency by a year or two, but would he agree to such a (relatively) short term for what could unquestionably be the one contract in his career of such a length?  Hamilton is motivated in different ways and by different things than most players, and maybe he would be absolutely fine with just a three- or four-year commitment (even though he’s barely made more as a player than the $3.96 million he signed for as an 18-year-old out of high school).  But as with many things as far as Hamilton is concerned, his case is uniquely difficult to predict.

As for Murphy, his situation is probably somewhat like that of Feldman’s a year ago.  Murphy isn’t exactly a core player, just as Feldman wasn’t when he signed his extension coming off a 17-win season, but like 2009 Feldman he’s the type of player that winning organizations have in the middle of the roster, and aren’t hesitant to commit to.  Feldman took advantage of a window to secure his financial situation, and I suspect Murphy (who can’t elect free agency until after the 2013 season, when he’ll turn 32) would be motivated to do so as well.

The 31-year-old Francisco, the lone free agent in the group, made sense to commit an arbitration offer to this off-season, and given the injury that ended his season prematurely, it’s not surprising that he accepted the offer (in spite of a very healthy market for set-up relievers).  But given the Rangers’ bullpen depth (including a couple arms who haven’t arrived but are getting close), anything more than a one-year settlement would be surprising, unless the club were to get Francisco to agree to a 2012 club option that would guarantee a modest buyout.  

O’Day is probably not a candidate for an extension.  The club already controls him for four more years (he’ll have four years of arbitration eligibility rather than three, as he qualified this winter as a Super Two), and the 28-year-old unlikely to elevate into a role (now or in the future) that would generate the kind of statistics which would trigger a massive arbitration payday.

And Andrus?  I’d say the Gonzalez deal that Boras just struck with Colorado gives him the type of model that will simultaneously (1) embolden his ask and (2) lessen the chances of anything getting done.  That’s not a problem.  Andrus is here through 2014, at least, and there will be plenty of chances to make sure his tenure lasts longer than that.  I wouldn’t rule out an extension before the season, but it may be more likely to look like Mark Teixeira’s in 2006, a two-year agreement that didn’t even exhaust his arbitration years but did give Texas a little multi-year cost certainty.

C
ount on the Rangers, who haven’t taken an arbitration case all the way to hearing in 11 years (when a panel found the club’s $3.5 million proposal for Lee Stevens more appropriate than the 32-year-old’s $4.7 million submission), settling in the next couple weeks with Hamilton, Francisco, and O’Day, just as they’ve already done with Wilson, Cruz, and Murphy (and Lowe).  The bigger issue is whether there will be mutual interest between club and player in some cases – including Andrus’s – for a multi-year extension at a number both sides would accept.

I should have known better than to ask yesterday for story ideas.  You guys emailed me with more than 200 of them.  Not complaining – I appreciate the feedback a lot – but I won’t be able to address any of them today.  Several of your suggestions in particular turned up over and over, and I’ll get to those, and a stack of other notes, next time.

Sometimes the moves work out, like when you traded John Kruk, Eddie Whitson, Mackey Sasser, and a 1991 second-round pick and sixth-rounder for 26-year-old Barry Bonds, Mark Carreon, and an eighth-rounder (which you turned into 20-year-old AA reliever Mark Wohlers in the next week’s draft) and a 13th-rounder.

Or Aaron Heilman, Yorvit Torrealba, and a 2004 first-rounder for Jason Johnson, Jason Grimsley, and AA catcher-turned-first baseman Justin Morneau.

Or, to be sure, Milwaukee center field prospect Dave Krynzel for Boston shortstop prospect Hanley Ramirez, firmly blocked by Nomar Garciaparra at the time of your April 2004 trade.

Other times, you spend days, maybe weeks, haggling before finalizing that blockbuster that sends Preston Wilson, Jose Jimenez, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Ricky Ledee away and makes Geoff Jenkins, Mark Redman, Kaz Ishii, and Pokey Reese new members of the Exprestos, not to mention that second-rounder and sixth-rounder that you got tossed in.  In other words, a flashy sizzle-over-steak trade that doesn’t do much good and doesn’t really hurt, but provides the adrenaline fix of making the deal.

I’ll readily admit that when I saw the news yesterday that Jim Thome had decided to return to the Twins, accepting a one-year deal with a $3 million base that’s reportedly less than what Texas offered, I was momentarily deflated.  I love Thome, always have, even if I’m not sure how adding his bat was going to work out in terms of playing time, unless it was setting things up for another domino to fall.  

That’s not to say I question whether Thome would have helped this lineup; I have no doubt he would have.  But if he were to play against righthanders and if that’s the plan for Mitch Moreland, too, is Michael Young suddenly a DH against southpaws only, with two games a week somewhere else in the infield?  And if Young fills in for Moreland against tough lefties, who DH’s?

Not that a right-handed designated like Manny Ramirez makes any more intuitive sense, since that’s what Young is slated to be.  (Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes adds Texas to the Angels, Twins, Rays, and Blue Jays as teams who have asked about Manny.)

Maybe someone like Troy Glaus, a right-handed bat who can play first base?  Sure, unless you’re expecting him to come in and mash lefthanders, which he hasn’t really done since 2007.  You like Marcus Thames?  Who’d play first against Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez and Dallas Braden and Jon Lester and C.C. Sabathia and Francisco Liriano and David Price and John Danks and Mark Buehrle and Ricky Romero and Brian Matusz – Thames or Young?

Change makes things more interesting.  Especially this time of the year, when the sports landscape flags with the fortunes of the other teams that generally hold interest.  The hot stove season in baseball is so awesome that it has a nickname, and television programming named after it, and part of the reason for that is change fires us up, renews hope, stokes new scenarios to dream on.  

In some cases, the idea of adding a player you’ve been in awe of forever, still producing even if his prime years were back when you were able to ship John Lackey, Reggie Sanders, Randall Simons, Royce Ring, Garrett Atkins, and a second-round pick away for young Adam Dunn, Joel Pineiro, and a first-rounder that you turned into the great Guillermo Quiroz, the number 35 prospect in all of baseball, gets you all baseballed up, especially at the time of year when your pro and college football season is over, your basketball team is skidding off the road, and hockey’s just not enough to get you to spring training.

Five days ago, I tweeted: “Not sure how all this would shake out, but gotta say: Seeing Thome stride to plate Opening Day would be almost as great as Vlad a year ago.”

That visceral reaction to player movement will always exist for me, a onetime Rotisserie league baseball owner who, on some days, wishes he were the assistant to an assistant in a real Baseball Operations department.  Even if guaranteed that the end result would be no better and no worse, there’s a part of me that would still vote yes for that one extra Rangers trade, that free agency flier, the ability to trade draft picks.

Because you never know, washed-up Kevin Elster might do a little damage if we just give him a chance, Cancun Lobstermen outfielder Ruben Sierra could be worth another shot, Colby Lewis may translate if we bring him back, maybe longtime nemesis Vladimir Guerrero actually has something left in the tank, and that trade you made, getting 18-year-old Sean Burroughs for 11-year veteran Marquis Grissom, could really pay off.

Hey, quick question.  We’ll have a booth at FanFest next weekend, and one of things we’re thinking of doing is having a Rangers trivia contest on Saturday, one that lasts all day for those interested, with an autographed Bound Edition (signed by Rangers players, not me) or two for the winners.  Shoot me an email if you like the idea, or if you have other ideas we might consider for the booth.

And if you have one of the 2,000 copies of the book sold so far, you can go to Amazon and post a Customer Review if that’s your sort of thing.

Some Rangers dates to keep in mind as we’re now down to 33 sleeps:

January 21: Dr Pepper Mid-Winter Awards Banquet

January 22-23: FanFest

February 16: Pitchers & catchers report

February 19: Position players report

February 27: Cactus League opener; first of 10 free spring training game webcasts on http://www.texasrangers.com (Rangers vs. Royals, 2:05 CT)

February 28: First of 10 Cactus League radio broadcasts on ESPN 103.3 FM (Rangers vs. Royals, 2:05 CT)

March 12: First of 11 Cactus League television broadcasts on TXA21 or FSSW (Rangers vs. White Sox, TXA21, 2:05 CT)

April 1: Opening Day, Rangers vs. Boston, Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, 3:05 CT

Four hours later, the Angels open in Kansas City, which reminds me of something Jon Heyman (Sports Illustrated) and Joel Sherman (New York Post) each predicted in November – that the Angels would sign Carl Crawford, and Adrian Beltre, and Rafael Soriano this winter.  All three.

Instead, Beltre and Crawford will face off in the Texas-Boston opener 500 miles south, and Soriano will be in the home dugout when the Yankees host the Rangers in a three-game set that ends on April 17, the one ESPN national telecast featuring Texas on the schedule released this week.

Meanwhile, as it stands, as Los Angeles lines up for player introductions in Kauffman Stadium on April 1, the Royals announcer will call either Maicer Izturis’s or Alberto Callaspo’s name as the Angels’ starting third baseman, and Juan Rivera or maybe Scott Podsednik in left field, and hoping to pitch in case L.A. can take a slim lead into the bottom of the ninth will be Fernando Rodney.

(We’ve talked before about how Jason Bay and Nelson Cruz have been traded badly over and over.  Add Soriano to the list: Seattle dealt him for Horacio Ramirez four winters ago, and Atlanta moved him for Jesse Chavez last off-season.  Today, Soriano is a three-year, $35 million set-up man.)  

(One reason I like the Yankees signing Soriano: They now forfeit their first-round draft pick, at number 31, to Tampa Bay.  Texas makes its first pick at number 33.  New York likes to pay well over slot to late first-rounders and supplemental firsts who fall because of signability issues: Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, Andrew Brackman, C.J. Henry, Slade Heathcott, etc.  Someone in this deep draft who might have fallen to New York at 31 will get past Tampa Bay at 31 and 32 [with nine picks among the first 60, the Rays aren't going to bust slot] on June 6, ripe for the Rangers’ picking at 33.)

(In fact, New York won’t pick until 50th overall [at best].  Texas will have had two picks [33 and 37] before the Yankees are ever on the clock.)

One more set of dates to throw at you:

March 31, 2007:  Texas designates off-season free agent pickup Marlon Byrd for assignment, two days prior to Opening Day.

April 5, 2007:  Byrd clears waivers, and Texas outrights him to Oklahoma.  Having been outrighted once before (by Washington in July 2006), Byrd has the right to decline the assignment and take immediate free agency.  He doesn’t, choosing instead to report to the RedHawks.

May 26, 2007:  Byrd, hitting .358/.415/.568 over 44 games for Oklahoma, is purchased by Texas.

Byrd hasn’t spent a day in the minor leagues since (with the exception of four days on rehab in 2008 when he was coming back from a knee injury), and has earned more than $8 million in that time, with another $12 million coming in the next two years.

Why bring that up now?  Because the player who held off Byrd for the final bench spot in 2007, and could very easily have killed Byrd’s Rangers career before it ever started, was Matt Kata, who managed a .186/.250/.300 slash while spotting at five different positions before his own designation for assignment in early June of that season.

Why bring that up now?  Because Texas has signed Kata to a contract with AAA Round Rock.

Don’t be surprised if Kata, age 32, doesn’t even get a non-roster invite to spring training.  He played for the Express last year (when the club was an Astros affiliate), as did catcher Kevin Cash, also a Rangers minor league signee.  A third AAA player signed recently, infielder Omar Quintanilla, has never played for Round Rock, but he did play for the University of Texas, as did Taylor Teagarden, who is likely to share duties with Cash behind the Express plate.  Two of Round Rock skipper Bobby Jones’s coaches, Scott Coolbaugh and Spike Owen, were Longhorn stars as well.

Others who played for Round Rock in 2010 include Ramon Vazquez, Drew Meyer, Jason Bourgeois, German Duran, Chris Shelton, and Casey Daigle.  None is back for a second go with the Rangers.  Yet.

But if any of them are still looking for work, I understand the Angels have a few roster spots they still haven’t addressed.

I really enjoyed the excellent Adrian Beltre write-up that Jeff Sullivan of Lookout Landing, a Seattle Mariners blog, did for Lone Star Ball a few days ago, so I asked the great Dave Cameron, of U.S.S. Mariner and FanGraphs and ESPN, if he was interested in penning his own Beltre piece for the Newberg Report since, you know, he doesn’t have enough on his plate already.

You can follow Dave at the above websites and on Twitter (@d_a_cameron), but in the meantime here are his thoughts on the Rangers’ new third baseman:

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One of the best things I was ever told was that it takes very little discernment to see what is wrong with a person.  For many of us, our flaws are self-evident, and perhaps with no baseball player is that more true than Adrian Beltre.  Watch him play just one or two games, and you will quickly catch on to a few glaring problems in his game.  

Beyond just his value on the field, however, Beltre is remarkably easy to root for.  He is quirky in ways that are hilarious and entertaining rather than contrived or just plain weird.  He doesn’t wear a cup.  He absolutely hates having anyone touch his head (link: http://bosoxgifs.imgur.com/beltre_head_rubs/).  He appeals his own check-swings.  On pitches when he really can’t decide whether to swing or not, he shuffles his feet like a 14-year-old at the prom.  He smiles all the time and has no problem laughing at himself.  He plays hurt, he refuses to take days off, and he actively mentors young players.  He’s simply a really likable guy, and yet he commands the respect of his teammates by working harder than everyone else.  

Once you get past the hacking, the rest of Beltre’s game is very easy to enjoy.  He’s also remarkably easy to root for, and that feeling will only grow as you come to realize just how unappreciated he is by a great majority of baseball fans.  Don’t be surprised if you find yourself vigorously defending Beltre over the next six years – he’ll earn your affection on and off the field.  He makes the Rangers better, but he also makes them more fun.  It’s a great combination, and you guys are lucky to have him.  

A few things I’m thinking about:

1.    Buster Olney (ESPN) is among those reporting that the Angels’ final offer to Adrian Beltre was $77 million guaranteed, which was $3 million less than Texas guaranteed him.  The clean $80 million figure is good for Scott Boras, good for the Union.  The sixth year at another $16 million is significant, no doubt.  

But I do like seeing that the Angels’ guarantee was just $600,000 a year less than the Rangers’ guarantee, an almost insignificant baseball number when you consider that it’s less than one percent of the Angels’ team payroll, closer to one-half of one percent.  Beltre lives in Los Angeles, too.  

For too many years, the Rangers would be right there with other clubs on big free agents and finish second, often used as a pawn to get the ultimate winner to spend top dollar.  Whether you agree with the contract or not, I like that Beltre picked Texas.

2.    According to Peter Gammons (MLB.com), the Rangers offered Derek Holland, Frankie Francisco, Engel Beltre, Cubs minor league catcher Robinson Chirinos, and cash to Tampa Bay for Matt Garza, before the Rays shipped the righthander (along with outfielder Fernando Perez and lefthander Zach Rosscup) to the Cubs for outfielder Sam Fuld and four prospects: righthander Chris Archer, outfielder Brandon Guyer, shortstop Hak-Ju Lee, and Chirinos.  

The Chirinos component to the Rangers’ offer obviously meant he was a key for the Rays and that Texas attempted to get the Cubs involved in its own effort to acquire Garza.  Stories from Bruce Levine (ESPN Chicago) and Ed Price (FanHouse) in November and December suggested that the Rangers and Cubs were in talks that might have involved Chris Davis (and possibly Darren O’Day) on the Texas side, and Chirinos (and possibly righthander Rafael Dolis) on the Chicago side.  So to take the Gammons note a step further, the cost from the Rangers – who were “the other team in it to the end” for Garza, along with the Cubs – might have included Holland, Francisco, Beltre, Davis, and cash.  That’s a lot.  (The Yankees also backed off a Garza deal, according to Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News, because the Rays’ ask was too high.)

I’m a Garza fan.  But that package would have made me nervous (maybe the Beltre part more than any), considering Garza wouldn’t have been a clear number one on this team.  He’d have been an outstanding addition to C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis atop this rotation, but removing Holland as part of the deal makes you ask the question of how much better you believe Garza will be than Holland in 2012 and 2013, the final two years of control the Rangers would have with Garza.  I’m not able to answer that question with conviction – plus I’m a believer that Engel Beltre can be an important piece here in those two years.

3.    Then again, top prospects have a tendency to disappoint.  Philip Humber was not only a first-round pick out of Rice but the third overall pick of the draft in 2004.  He was traded by the Mets to the Twins as a key part of the four-player package to get Johan Santana before the 2008 season.  He spent more time the next three seasons (two with Minnesota, one with Kansas City) in AAA than in the big leagues, clearing league-wide waivers in April 2009 and again in August 2009 when the Twins designated him for assignment.  The Royals signed him to a minor league deal last winter, brought him to the big leagues in August, and designated him for assignment three weeks ago.  Oakland claimed him.

And then the A’s designated him for assignment yesterday, without having even seen him in camp – so they give Moscoso a roster spot.

4.    Interesting note from Keith Law (ESPN) about what the Rays got from the Cubs: “Starting with the prospects, I love this trade for Tampa Bay.  They got more for Garza than Kansas City did for Zack Greinke, although their package of players is, collectively, further away than what the Royals got.  It looks to me like the Rays focused less on position and more on overall value.”

In other words: Bravo, Tampa Bay.  Not so sure, Kansas City.

(Part of what I wrote when the Greinke trade went down: “The Royals’ haul for Zack Greinke might pan out well, but I’d have this nagging concern if I were a Royals fan that it has a ‘trade for need‘ feel, and that new Kansas City skipper Ned Yost is more familiar with Milwaukee’s young players than any other club’s, and that the Royals’ ask was reportedly lower for interested National League teams than it was for AL suitors.”)  

5.    Do the additions of Greinke (two years of control), Garza (three years), and Shawn Marcum (two years) to the NL Central accelerate the possibility that Houston would trade Wandy Rodriguez?  Two reasons:
 
     a.    St. Louis and Cincinnati were already going to make things tough for the Astros the next few years, and now the Brewers and Cubs have taken aggressive steps as well.  With Rodriguez a strong bet to go away via free agency next winter (sitting near the top of a relatively thin crop of starting pitchers that could include Mark Buehrle, Wilson, and Edwin Jackson), it would probably make sense for Houston to test his market (in the summer, if not now) rather than bank on two 2012 draft picks, neither of which would be positioned before the back half of the first round.

     b.    With Cliff Lee, Greinke, and Garza off the market, and several contenders still looking for a frontline starting pitcher, Rodriguez could be sold high right now – or in July, but that assumes he pitches as well this season as he has the past three years, which includes a ridiculous second half of 2010 while nobody was paying attention: 5-1, 2.11 in 14 starts, 101 strikeouts and 28 walks in 93.2 innings, .204/.268/.331 opponents’ slash.

Maybe the Astros have been quietly shopping Rodriguez.  They should be.

6.    Speaking of the next few years, every time I think about Adrian Beltre at third base and in the middle of this lineup, I get fired up.  

7.    There’s one thing I worry about as far as Wilson is concerned.  He established a lot of good things in 2011.  He was durable, consistent, at times dominant, and proved he could pitch in big games.  But the contract year concerns me – I think Wilson’s DNA makes him a candidate to try and “do too much” (no matter how you define that vague description, I think you know what I mean), and with the departure of Lee’s minimalist guidance (trust your stuff, make ‘em beat you, no need to trick things up) . . . well, I’m a little nervous.

8.    A few notes on righthander Ryan Kelly, picked up from Oakland yesterday for Guillermo Moscoso, who had been designated for assignment to make room on the roster for Beltre:

     a.    The A’s had just acquired Kelly from Pittsburgh two weeks earlier, sending AAA infielder-outfielder Corey Wimberly to the Pirates for him.

     b.    On Day Two of the 2006 draft, Texas area scout Rick Schroeder successfully recommended 19-year-old lefthanders in back-to-back rounds: Walters State Community College’s Lance McClain in the 24th round, and Wallace State Community College’s Derek Holland in the 25th round.  McClain didn’t sign (eventually transferring to the University of Tennessee and then Cumberland University and going to Boston in the 12th round two years later).  Holland would sign with Texas after one more Wa
llace State season, as a draft-and-follow.

Kelly went in the following round, the 26th, to Pittsburgh, who drafted him out of a South Carolina high school.  The Pirates followed him in the spring of 2007 – a season during which he pitched for Walters State, settling in on Senators staff that had just lost McClain to Tennessee. 

Kelly would sign with the Pirates just before the 2007 draft, for $100,000, which was roughly seventh-round money, rather than return to Walters State for the 2008 season . . .

. . . when he would have been teammates with Rangers lefthander prospect Chad Bell, who starred for the Senators in 2008 and 2009 before signing with Texas in August 2009 as its 14th-round pick.

     c.    Schroeder, who is now a Royals area scout, and Rangers area scout Jeff Wood obviously developed some sort of book on Kelly for the Rangers then.  I doubt Chuck Greenberg has his own book on Kelly, but the righthander did pitch for Greenberg’s State College Spikes club (the Pirates’ New York-Penn League affiliate) in 2008, making six starts and two relief appearances (0-2, 6.75) in a season abbreviated by some minor arm tendinitis.

     d.    Kelly also missed some time in 2010 due to a fractured foot (sustained on a comebacker to the mound), but I don’t even see a week of inactivity looking at his gamelogs this past season for Low A West Virginia.  In 37 relief appearances and one spot start, Kelly posted a 4.20 ERA, stranded 14 of 15 inherited runners, and saved four games in five opportunities.  Pitching mostly in middle relief, the lanky righthander (who pitched all season at age 22) fanned 75 and walked only 14 in 75 innings of work, with fairly even ground/air splits and nine home runs allowed.

     e.    Kelly faced Low A Hickory twice last season.  On May 30, the Crawdads tagged him for four runs (three earned) in an inning and two-thirds on five hits, including one of Joe Bonadonna’s three home runs for the year and an Ed Koncel double.  Hickory won the game, 8-0, on a four-hitter spun by Neil Ramirez, Bell, and Braden Tullis, all three of whom could be High A Myrtle Beach teammates with Kelly this spring.

     f.    The Rangers cite command of a fastball touching 95-96 with life (out of a low-three-quarters slot) and the makings of a power curve (which has replaced his slider) when talking about his upside.  The downside includes several arm issues in his four pro seasons, but only one (in 2007) that cost him a disabled list stint.

     g.    I had Jake Brigham at number 38 on my Bound Edition ranking of the Rangers system’s top 72 prospects, and Mark Hamburger at number 68.  Kelly fits a similar profile and probably sits somewhere in between.  He’s probably slated for Pelicans pen work to start the season, with a chance to get to Frisco by the summer.

     h.    This isn’t a significant trade – you’re not going to make one for a player who has been designated for assignment – but an effort to continue stockpiling power arms (in this case, at almost no cost) in hopes that some of them put it all together.

We’ll have a Newberg Report booth at the Rangers’ 2011 Fan Fest two weekends from now (January 22-23, Arlington Convention Center).  More on that soon.

We’re down to 40 sleeps until Pitchers & Catchers, which is roughly a haircut cycle for me, which drives home how close we are to getting things rolling once again.  Obviously, I’m not used to this “Can we do it again?” mindset, accustomed instead to “Can we finally do it this time?”

Is Texas done reshaping its roster, once Guillermo Moscoso or someone else is dropped to make room for Adrian Beltre?  Maybe.  Jon Daniels said as much as Wednesday’s Beltre press conference, leaving room for the possibility that some other opportunity to improve the club could present itself before camp opens up.  If not, though?  “I’m comfortable with our club,” said Daniels.

Rafael Soriano?  No, says Jon Paul Morosi of Fox Sports, who reports that Texas never was in on the closer at any point this off-season.  (So the Red Sox can rest assured that they’ll get the Rangers’ first-round pick, 26th overall, for the loss of Beltre, and not a second-rounder instead, though Boston might have to worry instead about facing Soriano in the eighth inning if he’s as open to signing with the Yankees as he says he is.)  (On the other hand, Buster Olney of ESPN writes this morning that New York has flagging interest in Soriano.)

Vladimir Guerrero?  Nope, says Daniels.  That door has closed.

But Jim Thome?  Lots of media talk about that possibility yesterday, though it does raise the question of what the plan would be for Michael Young if Thome were brought in for a year.  

Jeff Francis?  Even after the arrival of Brandon Webb ($3 million base, additional $4 million in workload incentives and another $1 million based on days spent on the active roster), Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated and Jerry Crasnick of ESPN count Texas as one of eight teams interested in the left-handed reclamation project.

Matt Garza?  Tampa Bay wants too much.

Andy Pettitte?  New York or Deer Park, it looks like.

Carl Pavano?  No.

The thing is, we really don’t know what could be in store.  The Rangers’ interest this winter in signing Cliff Lee was well publicized (particularly since he was a player the club was trying to retain, rather than go out and get), but aside from that?  The Beltre move came as a relative surprise, without much in the way of strong speculation until the last couple days of negotiations.  Webb happened fairly quietly.  Arthur Rhodes ($3.9 million in 2011, another $4 million in 2012 if he appears 62 times this season and doesn’t finish the year on the disabled list) came out of nowhere, as did Yorvit Torrealba.  

And the trade for Lee.

And the trade for Josh Hamilton.

Player moves rarely get telegraphed out of Arlington these days.  The Daniels concession on Wednesday that he’s comfortable going to war with the roster he has now is as definitive an answer as we’ll ever get from him on his intentions, and even then he threw in the reminder that he’s always looking for ways to get better.  Maybe this winter, maybe during spring training, maybe in July.

At this time a year ago, Texas had yet to sign Guerrero.  Or Colby Lewis.  Or Khalil Greene.  

During camp, Greene’s decision not to report (and the lackluster showing of non-roster signee Ray Olmedo) caused Daniels to claim Hernan Iribarren off waivers, trade for Gregorio Petit (by sending Oakland reliever Edwar Ramirez, whom he’d traded for two weeks earlier), and trade for Andres Blanco.  Saltalamacchia’s health questions led Daniels to trade Olmedo late in camp for Matt Treanor.  The inability of Matt Brown (who was signed a year ago today) or Max Ramirez to seize the role of right-handed corner infield bat on the bench prompted Daniels to claim Ryan Garko off waivers.

During the season, despite not having any meaningful room on the payroll, Daniels traded for Bengie Molina.  And Cliff Lee and Mark Lowe.  And Jorge Cantu.  And Cristian Guzman.  And Jeff Francoeur.  

And now, Daniels has acknowledged there’s room in the budget for more roster improvement – though he’s quick to point out that he’s not inclined to spend it now just to hit a spreadsheet number.  It’s there, but at this point any opportunity that presents itself will be weighed not only against present roster options, but also against the possibility of various July possibilities, which you know Daniels and his crew have already mapped out, and possibly laid groundwork for.

Lots can happen amidst these next 40 sleeps.  But you can expect Texas to be aggressive with its roster well into the summer, especially if it’s in contention past the midpoint of the season.

A few things from the Beltre presser:

1.    He’s likely to hit fourth, behind Josh Hamilton and in front of Nelson Cruz, according to Ron Washington, who cited Beltre’s experience as a key factor.  (Recall, however, that Washington penciled Cruz in at number six and Chris Davis at number seven going into Cactus League play a year ago – and signaled an intention to flip those two by Opening Day so Davis could break up the Guerrero/Ian Kinsler/Cruz righty party.  Nothing’s etched in stone.)

2.    For what it’s worth, Beltre’s highest career OPS (.830) has come while batting in the cleanup spot (not counting the 1.512 he has in 15 career at-bats hitting ninth).

3.    This caught me off guard: Even though Beltre has played on winning clubs nine times in 13 years, he’s only been to the playoffs once, in 2004 when the Dodgers won 93 games and the NL West but managed only one victory in the NLDS before St. Louis put them away.  

4.    Daniels said that when he called other executives for whom Beltre had played (in Los Angeles, Seattle, and Boston), and Rangers players and coaches and trainers and others called their counterparts who had been with those clubs, there was not a single negative word uttered.  Texas was looking for red flags as part of its due diligence.  Found none.

5.    Not only do the Red Sox come to Arlington as the Rangers’ first opponent when the season opens – the Mariners come in right after them.

6.    Beltre’s first big league home run?  Batting ninth for the Dodgers in his sixth big league game, an interleague affair in Arlington on June 30, 1998.  After fouling off Rick Helling’s first pitch with two outs in the sixth and a man on first, Beltre took two pitches outside the strike zone before taking the Rangers’ ace deep to extend the Los Angeles lead to 4-0.  A Fernando Tatis homer in the bottom of the frame was all Texas would muster off Darren Dreifort and Antonio Osuna.

7.    Beltre has hit for the cycle one time in his big league career – on September 1, 2008 in Rangers Ballpark: home run off Matt Harrison, run-scoring single off Harrison, another single off Harrison, double off Luis Mendoza, run-scoring triple off Josh Rupe.  Warner Madrigal got Beltre to ground out to shortstop Michael Young to end Seattle’s ninth in a 12-6 Mariners win.

8.    Beltre called one Rangers player before signing his contract: Not a former teammate.  Not a Dominican countryman.  Michael Young.

9.    I was struck Wednesday by Beltre’s demeanor, and expect him to be among the primary leaders on this team, eventually.  He’s a little cocky (seeming to toy with the media session at times), but more self-assured than self-righteous, speaks both English and Spanish as if he’s done so his whole life, and given his reputation for playing hard and playing through pain, the formula’s there for Beltre to be a go-to guy in the clubhouse – particularly since he’s going to be here for a very long time.

10. &nbs
p;  Julio Borbon will surrender uniform number 29 to Beltre, taking on number 20 and whatever Beltre deems fair consideration.

I wish I’d had the chance to listen to Los Angeles sports talk radio on Wednesday.

According to Heyman, Beltre’s contract contains limited no-trade protection, though no further details were given.  He’ll earn $14 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012, $16 million in 2013, $17 million in 2014, $18 million in 2015, and $16 million in 2016, while that final year’s contract is voidable by the club if Beltre fails to amass 1200 plate appearances in 2014-15 and also fails to reach 600 plate appearances in 2015.  (The sixth year vests if Beltre reaches either number.)  If the sixth year vests but Beltre finishes the 2015 season on the disabled list and a physician mutually agreed upon determines that he’s unable to play at “normal health” by spring training of 2016, Texas will have the right to defer $12 million of the $16 million owed to Beltre in 2016 at 1% simple interest.

David Murphy agreed to a one-year, $2.4 million contract yesterday, avoiding arbitration.

There’s some talk that Kinsler could be looked at atop the order again.

Webb expects to be 100 percent ready to participate in all pitchers’ drills when camp opens.  The Rangers are cautiously optimistic that he’ll be ready for Opening Day.

I’m going to buy a P90X system.  For those who have done it, should I just buy it directly from the company, or are there better ways?  I’m not really a craigslist or eBay guy.

The Rangers are bringing back minor league free agent Elio Sarmiento, likely to catch again for Frisco, but saw minor league free agent Doug Mathis depart.  The righthander signed a non-roster deal with Cleveland, getting an invite to big league spring training.  Colorado signed Iribarren to a minor league deal.

The Rangers signed 16-year-old Venezuelan shortstop Rougned Odor for a reported $425,000 bonus, and two Dominican teenagers, catcher Fernando Vivili ($300,000) and righthander Jose Leclair ($95,000).  

Odor is easily the highest-profile of the three players, connected in the spring with the Yankees before the signing period opened on July 2.  The left-handed batter hit .538/.545/.857 for the Venezuelan Youth National Team in the World Youth Championships in Taiwan this August, with two home runs, a triple, and a double among his 15 hits (though he’s not expected to hit for significant power).  Odor struck out only twice in 28 at-bats in the tournament, and stole five bases in six attempts, though his run tool, while improving in some scouts’ eyes, is still considered only average.  Odor’s uncle Rouglas Odor is Cleveland’s AA hitting coach.

Texas released the following farmhands: righthander Sam Brown, infielder/outfielder Joe Bonadonna, and infielders Danny Lima and Vicente Cafaro, the latter of whom was a player-coach with the Arizona League squad.

Houston released second baseman German Duran.

The Southern Illinois Miners of the independent Frontier League exercised their 2011 option on righthander Dustin Brader.

Righthander Yu Darvish renewed his contract with the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters for one year, getting more than a 50 percent raise to what will roughly be a $6 million deal for 2011 (which will be the largest salary in the league).  Asked whether he expects to be posted a year from now to make his way to the Major Leagues, the 24-year-old responded: “No comment.”  His ERA’s in Japan the last four seasons have been 1.82, 1.88, 1.73, and 1.78, over which time he’s fanned 807 batters in 791.1 innings with a 58-22 record, and if you thought the posting frenzy over Daisuke Matsuzaka four years ago was maniacal, wait until Darvish posts.

And expect Texas to be heavily in on him, whether there’s a Cashman-like shout from the rooftops or not.